By Paul R. Pillar, Lobe Log: It is a sure sign that the Trump administration’s campaign to squeeze Iran into submission is a failure when those who customarily favor pressuring Iran acknowledge that failure. Take what has become the administration’s go-to rationale for the campaign in the face of other evidence that it is not working: the claim that U.S. sanctions have undercut Iran’s “malign” activity in the Middle East by reducing the funds available for such activity. In a recent op ed, Dennis Ross and Dana Stroul of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy debunk this notion by describing how and why a financial pinch on Iran does not translate into retrenchment in Iranian regional activity.
In Syria, for example, Iranian-backed militias “may be suffering from salary cuts, but less take-home pay has not led to a reduction in violence.” The same pattern of reduced cash not leading to reduced armed activity is seen with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. And although the administration has tried to highlight reductions in Iran’s military budget, assertive Iranian activity in the Persian Gulf such as sabotage or seizure of foreign tankers has gone up, not down, since the start of the administration’s pressure campaign. In short, Ross and Stroul accurately observe, Iran does what it does in the region “on the cheap.” Its regional activity is not determined by the balance in its bank account.
Or consider another rationale for the pressure campaign: that inside Iran it will build opposition to the regime and, it is hoped, lead to regime change. A recent analysis by the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)—which cannot be accused of being soft on Iran—highlights the failure on this criterion, too. While the sanctions-induced economic pain in Iran is undeniable, the Israeli analysts conclude that the “Iranian regime is managing, as in the past, to contain the economic difficulties without leading to deterioration and unrest that will undermine its stability.” The Iranian public “has despaired of generating significant political change” and is focused on “the struggle for day-to-day survival.” The economic crisis has increased the dependence of many workers on government jobs and lowered their willingness to “risk their economic and employment security through political and civil involvement.” Citizens’ concerns “about chaos and the loss of stability … exceeds their preparedness to advance revolutionary political changes”. The study presents data showing that protest demonstrations in Iran have declined, not increased, since the pressure campaign began.
Then, of course, there is the nuclear side of Iran’s response to the Trump administration’s reneging on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and waging of economic warfare. Iran’s exceeding of some of the JCPOA’s limits still leaves Iran, thanks to the severity of those limits, far away from any ability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran’s moves are easily reversible efforts to build leverage to induce the United States to return to compliance with the agreement. But the moves are in the opposite direction from what the pressure campaign was supposed to accomplish.
Ross and Stroul make some other pertinent and valid observations: that sanctions are not enough, that “credible economic gains” must be offered in negotiations, and that the Trump administration has erred badly in isolating itself from European allies. But even after recording this litany of failures, the authors can’t seem to tear themselves away from the notion that in the end, the task is one of exerting pressure. They lament the estrangement from the Europeans not because of missed diplomatic opportunities but instead because pressure works best when the Europeans are exerting it as well. And they want military pressure to add to the economic pressure. A “credible threat of military force,” they say, while saying nothing about exactly what would be threatened, and over what. It was the United States, not Iran, that blatantly violated an international agreement, and Iran’s responses since than have clearly been in response to the U.S. violations and waging of economic warfare. On what grounds would the United States credibly threaten to wage military warfare as well?
If discouraging any Iranian thoughts about building a nuclear weapon is an objective—and it ostensibly was everyone’s main objective back when the JCPOA was first negotiated—then threatening military attack is the wrong way to go about it, given how deterrence against just such an attack would be the prime reason for any Iranian interest in building a bomb. Insofar as politically weakening the Iranian regime is an objective, military threats are counterproductive here as well, given the usual rally-round-the-flag effects. The INSS study has something to say about this as well: “It seems that the increasing chances of military confrontation between Iran and the US contribute to internal cohesion among a public that frequently shows a readiness to rally behind the regime against threats of military attack or challenges to Iran’s territorial integrity.”
What neither the Trump administration nor pressure advocates such as Ross and Stroul are prepared to acknowledge is that the way out of the current U.S.-Iranian impasse is return to compliance with the JCPOA or something very much like it. Perhaps the energetic and imaginative diplomacy of French President Emmanuel Macron can help to chart a path toward that end. But two major obstacles need to be overcome.
One consists of those who oppose any agreement with Iran on anything and, unlike some hardline think tank, are in a position to do something about it. This includes Trump’s national security advisor, John Bolton, whose policies on Iran reflect his not being far removed from his days as a generously paid shill for the Iranian cult known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq. Another is Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Israeli government, which is willing to use military force to sabotage the diplomacy. Israel’s recent escalation of armed attacks across the Middle East is in large part designed to provoke Iranian retaliation that would make it politically difficult for either Trump or the Europeans to strike new deals with Tehran.
The other obstacle is the more traditional problem of how to get two sides in a bargaining relationship to come to terms when both are afraid of showing weakness through early concessions. The Iranians in particular—given how the history of this confrontation gives them good reason to believe they are the side in the right—have strong political and diplomatic incentives not to be seen as caving. Trump also doesn’t want to be seen backing down, but he clearly wants a deal and will want one more than ever as the U.S. election gets closer—especially if a failure to gain a trade agreement with China makes him even hungrier for something that he can describe as a foreign policy accomplishment. Perhaps the biggest element of flexibility in all this is Trump having no qualms about inaccurate descriptions, which in this case could mean describing a deal very similar to the JCPOA as something much different.
First published in Lobe Log. Cartoon by Bart van Leeuwen.
Paul R. Pillar is Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Studies of Georgetown University and an Associate Fellow of the Geneva Center for Security Policy. He retired in 2005 from a 28-year career in the U.S. intelligence community. His senior positions included National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia, Deputy Chief of the DCI Counterterrorist Center, and Executive Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence.
How do you know its a failure if you have not given it enough time? This must be an American thing to think that every thing will be done over night!
Bolton is still celebrating the Regime's 40th anniversary in Tehran, with Madam President Rajavi, of course!
"How do you know its a failure if you have not given it enough time? "
True, hence the sanctions against Cuba, or for that matter against Iran. Nearly 40 years has not been long enough.
Let’s give it more time J
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Some animals, you can't get rid of, by spraying or poisoning or killing one or two species!? In the case of akhoond and the IRI regime and supporters, you need to resort to massive scale of eradication! Strat Start off with at least one MOAB per mosque/shrine .....the rest will collapse like a domino effect.....!!!!
Regardless of all the barking, bitching and moaning, the akhoonds are still kept in power because it is in the interset of the those who pull the strings (behind the scenes, not on twitter).
They will be removed and replaced with whoever and whatever will serve their interest at the time.
This is what has happened to ass backward scocieties since the begining of time, so no amount of koon-paareh koni on the part of the armchair chicken hawks will change anything.
Just chill....it's coming............
Speaking of pro-Trump K**n Paarehgaan, the poor Manook Khodabakhshian who has put all his eggs in Trump's basket suffered a massive stroke some 10 days ago and is almost gone.
Good Guy, Gullible and Easily Influenced.
“Some animals, you can't get rid of, by spraying or poisoning or killing one or two species”
True to their core value of a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer which seem to encompass the primary tRump supporters who believe of eradication of whole race/religion or opponents.
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
Speaking of animals, what's up with the tanker?
رحیمپور ازغدی : شهید مطهری می گوید مردم شیعه جزء قالتاق ترین مردم دنیا هستن
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfBTThBs4JU
واقعیت کشته شدن امام حسین توسط شیعیان از زبان آیت الله مطهری
I detect a lot of anger and frustration from our persian speking felestini friends from khandaniha team . It means Sanctions are working just right!
These two madar ghahbeh felestini with some persian language knowledge also disliked Trump and America! Went on and made the fatal mistake of exchaning their computer keyboards with Real guns and were then converted into a lump of burning and smoldering fat and bones and rish and pashm by the mighty IDF!
Meysam Golabi , Dont try this at home!
Benjamin Mochakerim!
میگما کیر اون یارو که سمت راست لئونید برژنف نشسته تو کون هر چی زد ترامپیه!
Sounds like all indicators pointing out toward military action because according to the writer "Maximum economy pressure" does NOT work, so what is the next option ? Yes, sadly, the alternative option would be military intervention to topple Islamic criminal gang. U.S administration is fully aware of that. International community is also witnessing that U.S tried any possible non military confrontation, but it seems like iit is fruitless. Soon we will see the bombing of our country because of bunch of stinky , unshaven rag heads who is trying to keep their lavish Islamic life style with plenty Sigheh (Shia Temp. marriage). Mullahs have got to go back to mosques and cemetaries. But they don't want to give it up easily. Their "persistance" to stay on power will cost the lives of thousands or million innocent Iranians.
خواب دیدین خوش باشه
Iran to develop nuclear centrifuges as US dismisses French plan to ease tension
The Guardian
Hassan Rouhani confirmed Iran would be taking step away from 2015 deal after US envoy questioned existence of French proposal
The US state department has shrugged off a French initiative aimed at defusing tensions with Iran, and stepped up economic pressure once more, offering a reward for information that helps disrupt Iranian oil smuggling.
A few hours later, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, said that the country would expand its development work on new centrifuges for enriching uranium, in a third phased step away from compliance with a 2015 multilateral nuclear deal, likely to escalate the standoff with the US even further.
France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, had sought to mediate in the standoff, and tried at last month’s G7 in Biarritz to persuade Donald Trump to accept a confidence-building proposal, by which Iran would return to compliance with the 2015 deal in return for partial relief from US oil sanctions, and a $15bn credit line to finance oil sales.
Trump responded positively in Biarritz, suggesting he would accept the scheme if the US did not have to contribute to the credit line.
However, on Wednesday, the state department’s special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, called into question the very existence of the French proposal.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/04/us-iran-french-initiative-economic-pressure-brian-hook
AP reports...."The Trump administration stepped up pressure on IRI regime yesterday imposing new sanctions on an oil shipping network with ties to Iran's IRGC and offering a reward up to $15M for anyone with info that could disrupt its downward economy even further into the abyss .....!" Now, the question is how much is the US willing to reward us to expose the regime's Basijis here and over there.....!?
"Now, the question is how much is the US willing to reward us to expose the regime's Basijis here and over there.....!?"
Is this an admittance that your loyalty to tRump is based on what you are rewarded?
What are you, a Lashkhoor?
You should put your money where your mouth
Following tRump footsteps will earn you only the credibility he has got…Zilch, nada, pooch
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
I'll expose them for free - out of absolute patriotism!!! But watch out for your pal FerFeri - he would sell you for a simple band toomboon given his desperate financial plight!!! :-)))
credibility needed
Our politicians had resisted pissing on the office of Presidency, tRump fixed that.
tRump is helping to make Russia great again
Reject occupation, If the bar code starts with 7 29 put it back on the shelf
Buy American, say NO to Chinese madeTrump
“The time is always right to do what is right” – Martin Luther King
$15M is for high ranking one. For these two habibis from khandani ha team you'll get $50 starbucks card at most!
:))
Capital Flight - $59 Billion Has Left Iran In Past Two Years
More than $59 billion in hard currency has left Iran during last two years, Islamic Parliament Research Center (IPRC) has disclosed.
According to IPRC, following the United States withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Tehran’s nuclear deal with world power, more billions are expected to leave Iran in the coming months.
IRPC has also said that $59 billion is a significant figure in Iran’s financial situation, a website close to the speaker of parliament, Khabar Online reported on Monday, May 28.
The capital that left Iran during past twelve months amounts to $39,200 billion which is equal to 83% of Iran’s current annual income from its non-oil exports.
https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-capital-flight-momentum/29261821.html