Euractiv:

Kjeld Neubert

Iran’s supply of weapons to Russia is at a much lower rate than it used to be. Nonetheless, the quantity of firepower necessary for Russia’s intense daily strikes against largely civilian targets makes every last drone count.

Iran’s biggest public uprisings in recent history are casting doubt on the future of the regime, and questions about a potential knock-on effect on Russia have emerged. In the first months of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow relied on Iran to supply weapons. In particular, ammunition and missiles, followed later on by Iranian Shahed drones which have been used to attack military and civilian targets across Ukraine.

“The bulk of Iranian supplies came shortly after 2022,” arms expert Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher in the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, told Euractiv. These included hundreds of short-range satellite-guided missiles, almost 500 other short-range missiles and an estimated 200 surface-to-air missiles, Bloomberg reported. Additionally, Iran is said to have supplied Russia with missile launchers for satellite-guided missiles last year.

It is estimated that Russia initially bought 6,000 Iranian drones with the rights to set up its own factory in 2023. By March 2025, Russia began attacking Ukraine with around 1,000 Iranian-type Shahed suicide drones, since renamed ‘Geran’ – Russian for geranium – per week. These are significantly improved variants of the Shahed in terms of mechanics and navigation.

Iran “apparently has no access to the [Russian] advanced model, which is remarkable in itself,” according to David Jalilvand, Managing Director of Orient Matters consulting and fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

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