The New Yorker:

How internal politics in both countries could escalate the conflict in the wake of a tourist massacre in Kashmir.

By Isaac Chotiner

Early on Wednesday morning, India launched military strikes against Pakistan, killing more than thirty people, according to the Pakistani government. Yesterday, the Indian government claimed that Pakistan had responded with extensive drone strikes of its own. It is the largest military confrontation between India and Pakistan in decades. The two countries have been in conflict with each other for more than seventy-five years; this latest volley was set off when twenty-five Indian tourists were killed in a terrorist attack last month in the territory of Jammu and Kashmir. (A local Kashmiri resident was also killed.) The Kashmir region has a long history of militant activity, some of it funded and sponsored by Pakistan, and of opposition to Indian rule. The majority of Kashmir acceded to India after the 1947 Partition, and the Indian government has committed extensive human-rights violations there. In 2019, Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, revoked Kashmir’s special status under the Indian constitution, which it was granted as the only state in India with a Muslim majority. Since then, India has further cracked down on dissent in the region, while at the same time increasing tourism there. Now there is considerable fear that the conflict between India and Pakistan, both of which have nuclear weapons, could escalate.

I recently spoke by phone with Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale, and a consulting editor with The Caravanmagazine, about the current situation. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we also discussed how the political dynamics in both India and Pakistan could contribute to a widening of the conflict, the Indian government’s long-term failures in Kashmir, and why the world’s embrace of Modi has made him less likely to seek peace.

What about this situation feels new or different, for either Indians or Pakistanis or Kashmiris?

The one big difference this time was visible in Kashmir, after these tourists were shot down. For the first time in a long, long while, we saw Kashmiris come out in significant numbers and protest against killings. There were candlelight marches, there were protests, there were people publicly condemning it. It has been very difficult over the past thirty or thirty-five years to have Kashmiris come out in support of India, in a certain sense, or against armed militants who have been advocating separatism or pro-Pakistan politics in Kashmir. It was a great opportunity for Mr. Modi’s government, but Mr. Modi’s government did not take that opportunity. They continued with their policies of demolition of houses of suspected militants, and oppressive security operations to arrest a large number of young men, which clearly does not help anything. It was a great opportunity for him to take advantage of, which he did not take.

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