The Guardian:

Jason Burke
International security correspondent

Israel’s offensive against Iran is the latest link in a chain of events triggered by the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza into Israel on 7 October 2023. All have successively weakened Tehran and, militarily at least, empowered Israel. Without each, it is difficult to see how the new offensive it launched directly against Iran on Friday might be possible.

The first was the Israeli offensive in Gaza. This has now killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, but within weeks had militarily degraded Hamas sufficiently for the Islamist militant organisation to no longer pose a significant current threat to Israeli citizens.

As Hamas was part of the so-called axis of resistance, a coalition of similar organisations across the Middle East assembled by Tehran over the last decade or so to project power across the region and to deter Israel from striking at Iran’s nuclear programme, this had major regional implications.

Then, in April last year, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. In response, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, launching an ineffective barrage of drones. The conflict between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes away from Israeli soil, had now spilled into the open.

By the autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel could turn against Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based, Iran-supported group that was by far the most potent of the members of the axis of resistance.

In September, Israel eliminated the entire leadership echelon of Hezbollah as well as most of its feared missile stockpile and invaded its heartland in southern Lebanon without meeting significant resistance. Even Hezbollah loyalists acknowledged it had suffered a swingeing defeat.

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