By Frederick Kempe

Atlantic Council

It’s hard to predict where the Middle East’s ongoing seismic shifts will leave the region following the collapse of the Syrian regime. What’s already clear, however, is that Israel and Turkey are the big winners, having gained in ways that were unimaginable even a few weeks ago.

The Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov writes that now those two US allies, whose relations have grown far worse since the war in Gaza began last year, are set on “a collision course” in Syria and beyond.  

Assessing what Israel hopes to get out of the dramatic geopolitical realignment of the Middle East isn’t hard, as its national interests are well known and existential in nature. Its decisions are driven by its need for security, by its desire to maintain military and technological superiority, and by its enduring need to deter, contain, and counter Iran and its proxies.

Events of the past few weeks, which have so deeply weakened Iran and the armed groups that it supports across the region, have put Israel in its strongest security position in recent memory. In a powerful interview with the Wall Street Journal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recounts the key decision points that produced that outcome. “Power isn’t merely guns, missiles, tanks, and aircraft,” Netanyahu says. “It’s the will to fight and seize the initiative.” Now, Israel’s leaders are reflecting on how best to leverage and extend their gains.

Until now, the world hasn’t focused as much on Turkey’s own aspirations, but President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan isn’t shy about discussing them. “Every event in our region, and especially Syria, reminds us that Turkey is bigger than Turkey itself,” Erdoğan said this week. “The Turkish nation cannot escape from its destiny.”

Erdoğan frames that “destiny” in civilizational terms, positioning the “new Turkey” as a continuation of its Ottoman legacy and an Islamic world leader. This notion is sparking concern not only in Israel, but among Gulf monarchies and the United States, too.

“For Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, the shift in Damascus is a gamechanger that could pit them against a regional rival,” Hassan Hassan, the founder and editor-in-chief of New Lines Magazine, writes in the Guardian. “For western policymakers, views of Ankara’s growing assertiveness range from concerns over its Islamist ties to recognition of its centrality to Middle Eastern politics. This plays into Ankara’s hands, as it is a marked difference to Iran’s power projection that was unanimously challenged in the west and the region.”

Turkey’s rise, writes Hassan, disrupts Riyadh’s narrative depicting itself as the undisputed leader of the Sunni Muslim world, countering Shia Iran. “Ankara’s Islamist-leaning policies resonate with a broad swath of Sunni Muslims and political Islamists, offering an alternative to the Gulf monarchies,” he writes.

At a time when Israelis can sigh in relief at the diminished threat from Shia Iran, they are expressing new worries about a Turkish-led group of Sunni Islamists. Meanwhile, European and US diplomats are meeting in Damascus with Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the recent push that ousted the Assad regime.

On Friday, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf met with Shara and announced that the United States will drop a ten million dollar bounty it had offered for his capture. Leaf also said that the HTS leader agreed on the need to prevent terrorist groups from operating in Syria.

Shara says that he wants to build his country and not start new fights, but he’s still designated by the United States as a terrorist bearing the nom de guerre Muhammad al-Jawlani.

Where will all of this land? With so much in motion, one can’t be sure.

What’s clear is Turkey will have the most important voice in Damascus in the period ahead, and an increasingly large voice far beyond. Writes Trofimov: “This brings Erdoğan closer than ever to reaching his ambition for a sphere of influence that stretches across former Ottoman lands, all the way to Libya and Somalia.”

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on X: @FredKempe.