CNN:

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, Kylie Atwood, Tal Shalev 

America’s attitude toward allies leading up to the Iran war was the geopolitical equivalent of a slogan on a jacket once notoriously sported by first lady Melania Trump: “I Really Don’t Care. Do U?”

The Trump administration not only spurned coalitions and failed to seek the diplomatic legitimacy that marked the 1990-91 Gulf War or even the Iraq invasion in 2003; it launched its onslaught, along with Israel, without even telling many of its friends.

Take, for instance, the blindsiding during a trip to Dubai of a senior member of Italy’s government, which is closer to Trump’s ideology than most in Europe. “Think about the fundamental lack of coordination that represents: One of the US’ closest allies’ defense minister was in the theater when it kicked off, and had no idea,” said a US official.

Nine days later, the war has pulled the world more deeply than ever into the disorienting vortex that has already defined American life in the whiplash era of Donald Trump’s tear-it-down politics.

The US’ and Israel’s opening strikes — which killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sent off a regional pandemonium. European and Middle Eastern governments were confronted with a sudden war that wasn’t theirs and that most didn’t want. Officials scrambled to rescue citizens trapped in a widening combat zone. Soaring energy prices battered fragile economies and uproar rocked domestic politics. In the Gulf, US allies faced a drone and missile barrage that shattered the opulent calm of gleaming glass cities springing from the desert and shut down a global aviation crossroads.

Now, some allies are growing frustrated amid rising economic costs, fears of a migrant crisis if Iran implodes, and their citizens’ vulnerability. And they worry about what might come next.

But despite the administration’s triumphalism and the determination of his critics to compare America’s newest war to the Iraq quagmire, it’s too early to fairly judge how the war might end.

Relentless US and Israeli air attacks — in a military playbook that feels far more planned out than the political one — stand a strong chance of neutering Tehran’s power to threaten its neighbors. This would benefit the wider Middle East, bill Trump as a regional strongman, deliver Israel from an existential threat, and improve US national security after a near 50-year feud with the Islamic Republic.

But without full regime change, Iranians might still pay a heavy price if crackdowns rather than counter-revolution follow. And if Trump’s war shatters the Iranian state and sparks civil war, a refugee crisis or grave economic consequence could destabilize the world.

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