IranWire:

According to a former Islamic Republic official, speaking to IranWire through a traveler, Ali Larijani - the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council - has been at the center of the January 2026 crackdown. The source says Larijani is positioning himself for the post-Khamenei era, using his close ties with IRGC commanders and intelligence agencies, along with his family’s connections to senior clerics, to build support across different factions and prepare to lead the system after Khamenei’s death.

Larijani comes from a powerful clerical family. His father, Mirza Hashem Amoli, was a well-known Shia Grand Ayatollah and a leading figure at the Qom Seminary before the Revolution. His eldest brother, Mohammad Javad Larijani, served as a senior diplomat and Deputy Foreign Minister, while his younger brother, Sadeq Larijani, is a seminary professor in Qom and a former Chief Justice of the Islamic Republic. Sadeq Larijani is frequently mentioned as a possible successor to Khamenei.

Khamenei has never shown decisive support for Ali Larijani, who was even disqualified from running in several presidential elections. However, according to the former official, who remains in contact with Larijani’s team, it appears that following the failure of the Ahmadinejad experience and the inability of the hardline “Paydari” (Resistance) faction to attract broad support, Khamenei is now backing Larijani’s plans to consolidate various groups within the system and deal decisively with opponents.

According to IranWire’s source, Larijani sees his approach as resembling the security, cultural, and economic policies pursued by Deng Xiaoping in China during the 1980s. The source says the killings of protesters in January 2026 were modeled on the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, when the Chinese military is believed to have killed between 3,000 and 10,000 protesters - an event that still serves as a warning to opponents of the Chinese government.

At the same time as the crackdown, Larijani is said to believe in cultural and economic reforms and diplomatic engagement, much like the reforms implemented in China. It is likely that in the coming months, while severe repression of protesters continues, more cultural and economic freedoms will be granted to the public, and the regime will attempt to engage more effectively with regional and neighboring governments.

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