The Conversation:

By Saira Bano

In the wake of recent strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian cities, military sites and nuclear facilities, a troubling paradox has emerged: actions intended to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons may actually be accelerating its pursuit of them and encouraging other countries to follow suit.

On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a military campaign aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. The operation began with a series of co-ordinated strikes targeting Iran’s top nuclear scientists, senior military officials and key members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Despite establishing air dominance, Israel did not possess the capability to destroy Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear facilities — especially the Fordow enrichment site, which is buried deep within a mountain.

On June 21, the U.S. carried out major airstrikes targeting Iran’s critical nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Using B-2 stealth bombers equipped with bunker-busting bombs, the operation aimed to cripple Iran’s deeply fortified nuclear infrastructure.

Three days later, Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, bringing the 12-day conflict to an end. While both sides declared aspects of the campaign successful, the war marked a dangerous escalation in regional tensions and raised renewed concerns over the future of nuclear nonproliferation and security in the Middle East.

History of nuclear negotiations

The U.S. has consistently asserted that Iran must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. In 2006, Iran was subjected to international sanctions after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the government was not in compliance with its nuclear energy obligations.

Under former president Barack Obama, the U.S. government pursued a diplomatic path, culminating in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent and allow intrusive IAEA inspections. In exchange, it received relief from some international sanctions.

In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, despite IAEA reports confirming Iran’s compliance. This decision undermined diplomatic trust and prompted Iran to scale back its commitments under the deal.

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