As left beats up on Trump and right praises him, what we are witnessing is continued unraveling of the middle east in ways that can only usher the unraveling of U.S. and perhaps the West along with it. Absolutely no good has come out of the first or second Iraq war, Afghanistan war that has radicalized even the most moderate of people in the region and then set the ground for Yemen war, Arab Spring, Turkish move to a Sultanate led by Erdogan, SA as the ever-mercenary money source, to Israeli labyrinth of manipulation, Assisi holding on with military brutality…; it is death by a thousand cuts.
The Iranian uprising, this time against the very existence of slimic republic, has yet again given hope that maybe this cancer can be done away with. Of course, like in 79 it is a pipe dream of hope upon hope of people inside Iran that this regime can be changed or coerced, or some of diaspora hoping a slime ball like Trump et al are somehow going to be saviors of Iran, much like they thought shepeshoo Khomeini would do anything other than what he did. Apparently, the obvious dealing of past few months with SA, Israel and all kinds of back door nepherious deals do not seem to bother Trump hopefuls.
There is every reason to believe that slimic regime will do to Iran and Iranians what it supported in Syria along with rest of the crime partners. It did in 2009 when Mousavi’s historic betrayal of Iranian crescendo at the onset of Bahman ended the best chance Iranians had of toppling this curse from Iran. This time will only be more brutal and more violent as Mollas have been perfecting their techniques and tactics with Russian and Chinese help. The myth of people power died with the most significant devolution/fraud of the 20th century in 1979 and with it the downward spiral of the middle east and the West if not the world is unstoppable.
What we have witnessed again and again is that might make right and anyone who thinks this genie will go back in the bottle has not been paying attention for the last 40 years or so of small war practice at the end of history. The technologies of control, mass manipulation and fake news as forecast by no less than CIA itself a good 50 plus years ago has borne fruit and its chickens have come home to roost. The trend of past four decades has been downhill for majority of the planet, nation states and peoples despite a global economic expansion and there is no reason to assume that trend will change until the next major catastrophic war. There is hardly a better place to stage that than in the middle of the middle east and with powers that currently are nothing but a menace; on both sides. And strangely enough one is bastard child of the other.
Very good observations shahoo, kudo's for some inteligent writing. Check this article in BBC I think you will like it
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse?ocid=ww.social.link.email
Honestly you brought up on many points which requires hours of discussion and frankly this shallow web site is not a place for it!
Let's talk about regime change and people power, I am not one of those guys that is a big beliver in it(yes I know now they will accuse me of being IRI agent!). The results of all the regime changes in our region including Iran has been devastating. Now we have another one in the horizon with current uprisings in iran, chances are the regime will crush the people with iron first but let say the regime fails, who is going to take control? what guaranty there is that what replaces it would be any better? once the regime is gone and honey moon period (a month or two) is over all political, soical and encomic problems and crisis will reappear again and then what, syria, iraq or Libya model for us? I think many of us have short term memories, forgotten about fiasco 1979 and all the death and destruction after. Best thing for counrties like us is a coup by younger members of army and rev guard, to get rid of the elite in power , start relaxing the social rules and go from there. I am afraid any other approach may lead to a disaster.
MRX,
As I advised divaneh a while ago, intelligent conversation can be had by ignoring the usual suspects and depite JJ chasing stars in Andes mountains instead of managing the site.
You are right. There is no good option visible for Iran and Iranians in the current cluster and cross currents of global pissing contests going right thru Iran and ME. Younger army take over may be the best of bunch of bad options as Slimic regime has been quite effective is preventing formation of civil structures in Iran and destroying what there was. In a world dominated by the currrent key actors, and supremacy of profit, it is also hard to see any progress on any front.
Thanks for the article link. I think the West is sensing it's own demise in the face of it's inability to hold on to its values. Similar was written a while back in the context of Germany as the last flag bearer https://www.peterdegedo.com/2017/11/27/the-end-of-the-end-of-history-spiegel-online/
May Scotty beam us all up
DW’s headline says it all: “The genie is out of the bottle.”... Let’s stay together united to topple IRI comletely. Unity, unity, unity...
For many centuries, we have not been able to create institutions that in the time of crisis/change we can rely on. Our history has always been about individuals, domestic or foreign. This time around, while people are out on the streets in what appears to be both a wide and deep uprising, there are no signs of leaders or viable opposition. So the best that can be done is to look at Reza Pahlavi who looks more and more like an “accidental” leader, someone whose heart is not in it. Someone who has been awakened from his afternoon siesta by his wife and given a statement to read in his pajamas!
Or maybe we get lucky and some decent guy emerges from the crowd.
"Or maybe we get lucky and some decent guy emerges from the crowd."
I say Amen to that and I am not even religous.
Ability to act in a non-partisan manner is the top criteria for “the” leader.
Faramarz,
Agree. Those institutions could have saved us in 79. Some people have greatness bestowed upon them. Mousavi was in that position and ended up committing treason of historic scale. RP seems to be in that position now. He is not likely to know what to do and how and his recent kissing up to some of the neocons is not a good sign.
I tend to think that at this stage absence of a leader is an advantage. Discontent is deep and wide and reactions are visceral. It's not the youth of 2009 on the streets. That is good news. It's everyone and all ages. Best for a leader to emerge from among the known; perhaps someone like Majid Tavakoli. The reaction of this regime as clear by Ali geda's responses will be brutal and fearsome and the only game they have left is the old standby foreign interference excuse twhich in this case happens to coincide with protests even if unrelated.
Shashoo, good observations.
I don't know if it makes any difference at this point, but one major difference between now and 2009 is this:
"The protest demographics appear to have changed compared to the last major protest movement in 2009, which saw a significant middle-class participation. The current unrest appears to involve larger segments of lower income groups. The poorer strata of Iranian society have traditionally comprised the "for-hire" elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) security apparatus, which partly explains the lack of a widespread crackdown so far. A heavy-handed crackdown on the protesters would likely cause a significant backlash on the faction that authorized it, and may only serve to escalate protests."
The above is an excerpt from a report I get through a travel security and intelligence company, but it is right on.
If this could be the trigger to allow a growing number of people to join the movement, may be this will be it - or not, if there's no one for people to get behind, and as you know, Iranians must follow some figure, be it religious or otherwise.!
There are a few other differences between now and 1979.
Back then there was an opposition in the form of Bakhtiar's government that did take over for 30 days and delivered. There was also a secondary opposition in Paris and the west that quickly moved to Iran and pushed the 1st opposition out.
The late Shah had a place to go and say the hell with this. Khamenei and the gang have nowhere to go.
Back then the US and the west had leverage over the Shah and were in contact with the opposition too. Today, only Putin has leverage over the Regime and as we saw in Syria, Putin is not interested in regime change.
Back then the armed forces declared neutrality. It is not clear how the men with guns will behave tomorrow.
A flash point is coming up on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb. 11th, when there will be a show of force on both sides.
Ex_CoP,
I hinted to change of demographics as well. and that is bad news for the slimic republic. Their fleecing and raping of the nations wealth has cut thru to their own support "masses". Also agree we do need a leader. I think it needs to emerge as along with the deman of people in a simple form: "Jomhoorie eslami bayad beravad" or similar.
Faramarz,
Several good points. I see little similarity with an BBC 79 and no one has prepped a palace with guards, 26 phone lines or other facilities in a Paris suburb and prepped the ground between 73 to 79 with Shariati scum et al.
Feb 11th in 2009 was the moment of conquest for the rapist republic thanks to Mousavi. I think the basic rejection of theocracy will reduce that risk this time. Hopefully. The guns are a key unknown.