The Guardian:

Jason Burke in Jerusalem

Iranian-backed militias around the Middle East are continuing attacks against Israel, the US and their allies in retaliation for the US-Israeli offensive against Tehran, but have so far held back from all-out confrontation, analysts and regional officials say.

The relative restraint suggests that Tehran sees such forces as a strategic reserve to be deployed if the 12-day war continues to intensify – though it may also be a sign that Iranian command and control systems are breaking down.

Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Islamist militant movement which has close links to Iran, joined the conflict early, launching missile and drone attacks at Israel after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

On Tuesday, Shia militias in Iraq attacked a US diplomatic facility in Baghdad, the latest in a string of such strikes, and have previously launched long-range attacks at Israeli and US bases in Jordan.

But so far, the Yemen-based Houthis, which are also part of Iran’s once-potent coalition of militant militias across the Middle East known as the “axis of resistance”, have not reopened hostilities with the US or joined Tehran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel or Gulf neighbours or shipping – though they warned last week that their “fingers are on the trigger”.

With the closure of the strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, the Red Sea shipping lanes have become even more vital. No attacks in the Red Sea have been reported since the Iran war began, but threats persist, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a naval advisory service, said on Sunday.

Observers say the imminent passage of a US aircraft carrier battle group through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait at the eastern end of the Red Sea would be a key moment that would test the powerfully armed movement’s intentions.

“That is going to be a really important test … The Houthis have mines, drones, artillery, a whole range of missiles. The axis of resistance will never get a better chance to set a US aircraft carrier on fire,” said Michael Knights, a regional expert at Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory – based in New York.

The Houthis have received extensive financial, military and other support from Tehran over decades, and described the appointment on Monday of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader of Iran as “a new victory for the Islamic Revolution”.

However, experts say the Houthis, though they still possess an arsenal of powerful long-range missiles, may decide against active involvement in the current conflict and would not simply follow orders from Tehran.

“It is difficult to predict, but I don’t think they will strike shipping in the Red Sea purely based on solidarity with Iran … They are weighing domestic considerations,” said Allison Minor, of the Atlantic Council, a thinktank based in Washington DC.

“Getting involved in the Iran war is a potential scenario, but would not yield the same domestic and international benefits for the Houthis that attacking Israel and Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war did, and …. could pose greater risks.”

Last week, Phillip Smyth, a US-based independent analyst of Iran’s allies and proxies, said Tehran may be holding the Houthis “in reserve”, but that the movement’s leaders could also be “hedging their bets in case the Iranian regime collapses”.

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