DW:

Burak Ünveren

Turkey supports the Palestinians and criticizes Israel while still observing distant relations with Iran. Turkish military involvement in the growing regional conflict is therefore unlikely, experts say.

For months, many countries have warned of an escalation in the war in the Middle East. These concerns are now magnified in the wake of Iran's latest attack on Israel.

Iran is one of the regional powers in the Middle East. Another is Turkey, and Ankara has been on the side of the Palestinian people since Israel's offensive on the Gaza Strip in response to the October 7, 2023 attack by the terrorist organization Hamas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel of committing "genocide." He has also repeatedly emphasized that he does not see Hamas as a terrorist organization and often speaks of his "Palestinian brothers."

'Instrumentalizing foreign policy for domestic political goals'

Erdogan recently stoked fears within his own population: In a speech to the Turkish parliament on October 1, 2024, he accused Israel of also wanting to attack Turkey. "The Israeli government, which has gone mad in the Holy Land, will possibly target our homeland with its religious fanaticism after Palestine and Lebanon," he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of occupying Anatolia and is "chasing a utopia," Erdogan added.

But experts see Erdogan's statements as unrealistic. "I think this scenario is impossible," said Selin Nasi, a political scientist at the London School of Economics (LSE). "Turkey is a NATO member. Attacking Turkey would mean confronting NATO and the US. Besides, there is no reason for Israel to attack Turkey."

Erdogan is trying to consolidate his base and show solidarity with the Palestinians, he added. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO, making it not only strong militarily, but also a close ally of the United States—just like Israel.

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