Cartoon by Christopher Weyant

Iran and Israel: From shadow war to direct confrontation

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Alarabiya: Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated to a critical point, crossing a threshold that many observers feared would one day be breached. In recent months, both nations have engaged in tit-for-tat retaliations, with each promising to respond forcefully to the other’s provocations.

What was once a “shadow war” conducted through proxies, cyberattacks, and covert operations has now erupted into direct military strikes within each other’s territories. This shift marks a significant escalation in their longstanding rivalry, moving the conflict into uncharted and dangerous territory.

In this latest exchange, Israel launched strikes against Iranian military targets, including facilities believed to support Tehran’s missile and drone programs, while Iran has vowed to retaliate, heightening tensions in the region.

The current cycle of strikes and counter-strikes between Iran and Israel is fraught with peril. While both sides appear to be carefully calibrating their actions to avoid crossing the threshold into full-scale war, the margin for error is razor-thin. A single miscalculation – a strike killing too many civilians or targeting a high-profile military leader – could set off a chain reaction that neither nation can control.

Such a war would likely drag regional and global powers into the fray, escalating the stakes far beyond the Iran-Israel dynamic.

If the current situation escalates into a full-scale war, the military capabilities of Iran and Israel would play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. Despite their mutual enmity, these two nations possess vastly different strengths and weaknesses.

The Islamic Republic has over 1 million active and reserve personnel combined, compared to Israel’s approximately 600,000 when including reserves. However, Israel’s mandatory military service and highly trained reserve forces ensure a high degree of readiness and skill among its troops.

Air superiority is considered to be a cornerstone of Israel’s military strategy. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) is equipped with cutting-edge American-made F-35 fighter jets, precision-guided munitions, and advanced radar systems. The IAF has consistently demonstrated its ability to conduct long-range strikes with precision, as seen in its operations against Iranian targets in Syria and, more recently, within Iran itself.

Iran, while improving its air capabilities, still lags far behind. Its air force relies on a mix of outdated American jets from the 1970s and Russian and Chinese aircraft. While Iran has invested in drone technology, which it has used effectively in regional conflicts, it lacks the advanced fighter jets and integrated air defense systems that define Israel’s air force.

Iran’s primary strength lies in its extensive ballistic and cruise missile arsenal, one of the largest in the Middle East. These missiles can strike targets across Israel, including major cities and military bases. Iran’s missile capabilities, combined with its network of proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, provide it with a means to project power beyond its borders. Israel, on the other hand, is well-prepared to counter missile threats with its multi-layered missile defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems. These defenses have proven effective at intercepting rockets and missiles, though they are not foolproof, especially against large-scale barrages.

Israel’s greatest strategic advantage is its alliance with the United States. With President Donald Trump re-elected, US support for Israel is going to be stronger than ever. This backing will most likely include substantial military aid, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic protection on the global stage.

Iran, while lacking a superpower patron, has forged alliances with Russia and China, particularly in the context of arms deals and economic cooperation. Additionally, Iran’s network of regional proxies, including militias in Iraq and Syria, provides it with asymmetric capabilities that can harass Israel on multiple fronts. However, these proxies, while formidable, are unlikely to compensate for Iran’s conventional military shortcomings in a direct war with Israel.

What ultimately tips the balance of power is Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons. Though Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, it is widely believed to have a stockpile of approximately 80-100 nuclear warheads. This strategic deterrent serves as a powerful check against any existential threat to the Israeli state. Iran, while advancing its nuclear program, does not yet possess nuclear weapons, and its potential to develop them remains a focal point of international efforts to prevent proliferation.

Should a war break out, the consequences would likely be catastrophic for the region and beyond. Neighboring countries, already grappling with instability, could be drawn into the conflict, further exacerbating the human and economic toll.

In conclusion, militarily speaking, Iran would face significant challenges in a direct war with Israel. The ongoing tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Israel represent a dangerous escalation with the potential to spiral into a devastating war. While both nations have so far managed to avoid crossing the ultimate red line, the risk of miscalculation looms large. In a full-scale conflict, Israel’s military capabilities, coupled with its US alliance and nuclear deterrent, would likely outweigh Iran’s strengths. However, the human, economic, and geopolitical costs of such a war would be immense.