Decrypt:

By Ryan S. Gladwin

In brief

- Iran accounted for a 7.5% of the Bitcoin hashrate in March 2021, a figure that fell to 0.12% by the next year.

- Some experts estimate that Iran could have mined up to 200,000 BTC throughout its history. But others believe it's too complicated to predict.

- Iran's crypto mining industry is mostly underground and hard to trace, as individuals and institutions seek to avoid high electricity bills and being forced to hand over their BTC to the country's central bank.

Iran has been mining and trading in cryptocurrencies out of necessity due to major global sanctions and a local currency that has dwindled in value due to severe inflation since at least 2019. However, experts told Decrypt it’s still nearly impossible to estimate its holdings.

The University of Cambridge’s Center for Alternative Finance estimated that the nation accounted for 7.5% of Bitcoin’s hashrate in March 2021, a figure that fell as low as just 0.12% in January 2022.

Throughout its history, Andrew Scott Easton, founder and CEO of Bitcoin miner fund Masterminded, estimated that the country has mined approximately 60,000 BTC—which would be worth $6.4 billion at current prices.

Meanwhile, Kent Halliburton, co-founder and CEO of mining platform Sazmining, estimated since 2018, the country has mined between 100,000 and 200,000 BTC. That could mean its holdings are worth between $10.7 billion and $21.4 billion. The timing is significant, as in 2019, Iran started issuing legal permits for crypto mining.

But Rajat Ahlawat, researcher at compliance firm Crystal Intelligence, told Decrypt it's too complex to estimate. He said that’s because Iran’s mining industry has largely been driven underground in attempts to avoid high electricity prices.

The most easily traced sector is that of legally licensed crypto mining farms. In 2020, approximately 1,000 crypto mining farm licenses were issued, according to the National Council of Resistance of Iran—a coalition that opposes the current government in Iran. The same source said that in 2022, more than 10,000 licenses were handed out to miners and exchanges.

However, former President Hassan Rouhani has said himself that about 85% of mining in Iran was unlicensed as of 2021. Iran’s state electricity company, Tavanir, estimated that approximately 700,000 illegal mining rigs were operating in Iran earlier this year.

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