The Washington Post:

News broke this week that Saudi Arabia, looking to ease tensions with Iran, held secret talks with the Islamic republic. This comes as the Trump administration continues to increase its hostilities toward Iran.

Many observers initially assumed that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hoped for a confrontation with Iran, and that their aggressiveness could drag the United States into a new regional conflict.

But Saudi Arabia and the UAE did not bring the United States and Iran to war — suggesting that Arab countries are more ambivalent about war with Iran than many policy experts assume, and that they may actually be a source of restraint.

When the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, many experts worried this was a prelude to war. Saudi actions compounded this fear. Saudi leaders were frustrated with the Obama administration’s outreach and pleased by Trump’s aggressive stance.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman displayed an aggressive stance toward Iran, increasing regional tensions. Some analysts began to explicitly worry that Saudi Arabia — and the UAE, another Gulf ally often aligned with Saudi Arabia — would pull the United States into war. This would not be the first time irresponsible weak allies dragged their powerful patrons into a war they did not desire, as this process arguably contributed to the outbreak of World War I.

Academic scholarship validates this fear. An influential study found that tense regions experience complicated alliance politics. When governments believe offensive war will be quick and effective, they become dependent on their allies. If a government starts a war, then its allies believe they must come to its aid. In this way, a small military conflict can become a major one.

The United States is a close ally of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States relies on the two countries to stabilize energy markets and provide access to the region — and they enjoy great influence over our policies, particularly in the Trump administration.

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