Politico:

Nahal Toosi is a foreign affairs correspondent at POLITICO. She joined POLITICO from The Associated Press, where she reported from and/or served as an editor in New York, Islamabad, Kabul and London.

By the time Inauguration Day rolls around in 2021, there might not even be a deal left — it has been hanging on by a thread since President Donald Trump pulled out last year. Even if it still exists, sections of the 2015 agreement are set to expire in the coming years, Trump’s punishing sanctions on Iran will be hard to fully unwind, Iran has elections that could put more anti-deal hardliners in power and Tehran has already threatened to unwind itself from the deal in the months ahead. Then, there’s the possibility that Iran and the U.S. could be in a full-blown military conflict.

Democratic campaign aides acknowledge these challenges. But they insist that the smartest move, politically and policy-wise, is for White House hopefuls to promise a return to the 2015 agreement. It’s a way, they said, for candidates to link themselves to a popular Barack Obama legacy, distinguish themselves from Trump and send a signal to the world — including Iran — that the U.S. will once again be a reliable partner.

“It’s moving away from this hysterical way that Washington talks about Iran, as this uniquely problematic actor that exists outside the realm of normal diplomacy,” said Matt Duss, an adviser to Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont senator seeking the Democratic nomination.

Former President Barack Obama's administration spent years negotiating the nuclear agreement with Iran's Islamist government and global partners. The deal removed numerous international sanctions on Iran in exchange for severe restrictions on its nuclear program.

Trump quit the agreement last year, arguing that it was too narrow and time-limited and that it should have covered Iran’s non-nuclear activities, too, such as its support for terrorist groups. But despite using sanctions and other pressure, Trump has been unable to lure Iran into crafting a new deal. If anything, the two countries have been moving closer to a military confrontation, with each side shooting down the other’s drones, among other face-offs.

The nuclear deal is one of the few foreign policy issues that comes up with any regularity for the two dozen Democrats striving for the White House.

In February, the Democratic National Committee passed a resolution calling on the U.S. to rejoin the agreement. In debates and other forums since, most of the Democratic contenders have taken essentially the same position.

“Whatever its imperfections, this was perhaps as close to a true ‘art of the deal’ as it gets,” candidate Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., said in a foreign policy speech last month.

The only serious exception so far has been Cory Booker, the New Jersey senator, who declined during a debate to “unilaterally” promise a return. “If I have an opportunity to leverage a better deal, then I’m going to do it,” said Booker, who is close to pro-Israel activists who oppose the current agreement.

Either way, former U.S. officials and Iran analysts say a reality check is in order.

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