Cartoon by Michael Ramirez

Hezbollah is pounded by Israel, but key ally Iran is reluctant to intervene

By Susannah George, Suzan Haidamous and Abigail Hauslohner

The Washingtn Post: Israeli airstrikes are dealing withering blows to Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most important allies and a key defensive buffer for the Islamic republic. But Tehran has been reluctant to intervene on behalf of the militant group, choosing instead to pursue engagement with the West.

In the 11 months since Hezbollah escalated its attacks on Israel — a show of support for Hamas in Gaza — the group has suffered the heaviest losses of its four-decade history. Its leadership has been decimated, its munitions destroyed, and its communications compromised by attacks last week that turned pagers and radios into bombs.

But while Iran has offered rhetorical support, it has not joined the fight.

Hezbollah “is completely able to defend itself and to defend Lebanon and Lebanese people,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said this week at the United Nations.

Heading into the U.N. General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of “atrocities,” “colonialism,” “desperate barbarism” and “crimes against humanity” in Gaza. But he also adopted a moderate tone, declaring a “new era” in which Iran would play a “constructive role” in world affairs.

Iran’s focus on engagement and its hesitance to intervene on the ground demonstrate the limited military options available to reestablish deterrence with Israel after a year of heightened hostilities in the region, analysts and diplomats say.

Hundreds of Hezbollah fighters are estimated to have been killed and “significant” munitions and equipment destroyed since Monday, according to an assessment by one government. The speed with which so much was destroyed shows the extent of Israel’s intelligence gathering, said an official briefed on the assessment. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the assessment to journalists.

The Israel Defense Forces launched more than 1,000 airstrikes at what it said were Hezbollah targets in southern and northeastern Lebanon, including in Beirut’s southern suburbs, in the first 24 hours of the offensive. Many hit civilian homes, according to people who fled the areas hit hardest.

More than 600 people, including more than 50 children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes since Monday, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Thousands have been wounded. The ministry does not differentiate between combatants and civilians.

Strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs have killed at least four senior Hezbollah commanders in the past week. On Thursday, a bridge between Lebanon and Syria was destroyed.

A man cleans debris Thursday amid a search for survivors after an Israeli strike on residential buildings in Maaysra, Lebanon. (Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters)

The attacks have forced tens of thousands of people from their homes, triggering a humanitarian crisis that analysts and individuals close to Hezbollah say has already increased pressure on the group.

Hezbollah, founded in the 1980s, has grown from an insurgency in Lebanon’s southern mountainous region to the most powerful armed force in the country. It owes much of that growth to decades of Iranian patronage.

That long relationship is one reason analysts don’t believe Iran will abandon Hezbollah, even if it does not openly intervene in this fight.

“This is three decades of investment,” said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at St. Joseph University in Beirut. “Iran will not throw Hezbollah under the bus at the first opportunity.”

Iran did not directly engage Israel in 2006, either, when it fought a devastating war with Hezbollah. But it did help rebuild and rearm the group after the conflict — and is likely to do so again, counting on Hezbollah’s ability to bounce back, as it has in the past.

“Some of the effective and valuable members of Hezbollah were martyred,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said during a meeting this week. “But this was not a loss that could bring Hezbollah to its feet.”

“They don’t believe that Hezbollah will be destroyed,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. “A war, even if it’s a fully fledged conflict, would weaken Hezbollah and deplete some of its resources,” but the group could be rebuilt.

Before Israel launched its barrage Monday, Hezbollah was already in disarray, after thousands of pagers and radios used by the group exploded last week. The attacks, believed to have been launched by Israel, killed 37 people and maimed thousands, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Most are believed to have been Hezbollah operatives, but the casualties included civilians, including children.

The attacks essentially disabled Hezbollah’s logistical capabilities, according to an individual close to the group, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters. The operatives who were killed and injured “were the eyes and ears of Hezbollah on the ground,” he said.

“This was a big slap that did hurt.”

The cost could be seen this week when people fled southern Lebanon. During the 2006 war, Hezbollah organized shelters and medical care for displaced people. This time, one individual said, the flight has been “chaotic” because the group doesn’t have enough experienced people to call on.

Leadership losses present less of a challenge because Hezbollah already has organized succession plans. “Hezbollah prepares four or five militants under every high-ranking commander,” said the individual close to the group. Many are university graduates in technical fields. “They are highly trained, if not better trained than the first generation,” he said.

Still, analysts and officials say, Israel appears to have opened a decisive edge over Hezbollah and Iran. With the pagers operation, they say, Israel has established escalation dominance, backing its adversaries into reactive postures.

Iran attempted to establish deterrence with a largely symbolic attack against Israel in April, but Israel has continued to launch attacks on Iranian interests. After Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in July, Iran pledged a “punishing response,” but it has not yet retaliated.

Escalatory attacks remain dangerous. No one knows where Hezbollah’s or Iran’s threshold for restraint lies, said Vali Nasr, a professor and former dean at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“You know that there is a red line somewhere, but you don’t know where that red line is,” he said. “Even Israel doesn’t know where that red line is. And that can be dangerous because Israel can over-read its hand, thinking, ‘Okay, these guys are completely feeble, they’re not going to react. Why don’t I just keep pushing?’”

George and Haidamous reported from Beirut and Hauslohner from Washington.