Cartoon by Hiva Rash
Iran's leadership from the bunker: What does it mean for the future of the state?
Gazeta Express; The absence of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from the public eye during the Israel-Iran war could be a defining moment for his leadership and the future of the Islamic Republic.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a constant presence in public – making daily statements and showing resolve – Khamenei, Iran’s commander-in-chief, was virtually unseen by the public, having released only two video messages during the conflict. One of them was reportedly recorded in a bunker.
As the third video message emerged after the ceasefire, debate over the impact of his behavior during the war has deepened among both experts and the Iranian public.
He hid to survive.
Khamenei's disappearance from the public scene is not simply related to his leadership style. It has been directly prompted by reports that he was at the top of Israel's list for elimination.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has publicly confirmed that Israel actively sought to assassinate the Iranian supreme leader during the conflict, but could not kill him because he was "hidden too deep underground," which meant that Israel "did not have the operational capability" to carry out an assassination attempt on him.
The threat was so serious that Khamenei reportedly suspended all electronic communications and relied only on his most trusted aides. The New York Times reported that he had even designated who would take over his post in the event of his assassination.
Leadership under attack?
This level of threat and the way Khamenei responded significantly impacted the perception of his leadership.
"Ayatollah Khamanei was responsible both for bringing this catastrophe upon his regime and for saving it at a moment of danger," Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, told Radio Free Europe.
The initial Israeli strike eliminated a number of Iranian military commanders and exposed "serious structural weaknesses within Iran's leadership and security apparatus," Vaez said.
These obstacles, reinforced by the damage to Iran's missile arsenal, nuclear program, and regional allies, have thrown the Islamic Republic's strategic doctrine into chaos.
"While Khamenei has survived the conflict, both physically and politically, his legacy is devastating for the state," Vaez argued.
However, some see nuance in how Khamenei managed the crisis.
Raz Zimmt, director for Iran in the Shiite Axis at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), noted that despite the initial shock and loss of top commanders, Khamanei managed to quickly appoint successors – an organizational feat that is “not easy at all,” especially given the scale of these losses.
"Despite the surprise, despite the shock, which certainly increased his paranoia, I think he actually managed to appoint a successor in less than 24 hours," Zimmt told Radio Free Europe.
According to him, this ability to maintain control in the face of chaos has temporarily protected Khamenei from having his authority directly challenged.
"It will be even more difficult to question his authority in the near future, mainly because he is surrounded by commanders who have less experience."
Strengthening the role of the Revolutionary Guard
However, this episode has further strengthened the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Vaez stressed that “every shock inflicted on the Islamic Republic from outside… has historically contributed to the expansion of the Revolutionary Guard’s role within the system.”
The Revolutionary Guard has emerged from this crisis as the backbone of the political establishment, quickly filling gaps in command and positioning itself as an institution indispensable to Iran's survival.
Zimmt agreed, arguing that "I don't see anyone else who can replace the Revolutionary Guard as the main element within the Iranian elite that can provide security and support the existence of the regime."
However, the strategic costs of the war are likely to raise difficult questions in the coming months, which relate to "concerns about Iran's inability to maintain deterrence in the face of Israel and the US."
But, he added, "I think that as long as [Khamenei] is there, and as long as there is no reason for him to retire, the Revolutionary Guard will support him... and then prepare for the day when his successor comes."
Both experts agreed that although a coup is unlikely to occur in the short term, the influence of the Revolutionary Guard is expected to grow increasingly, especially as Khamenei's advanced age raises questions about his successor.
Vaez warned that the Revolutionary Guards are "slowly moving toward viewing religious leadership more as a burden than an asset."
Meanwhile, Zimmt said he sees no sign of an imminent change in Iran's strategic direction, neither under Khamenei nor under his successor, something that, according to him, suits the Revolutionary Guard very well.
So, while there are unlikely to be any immediate challenges to Khamenei's rule, the Revolutionary Guard's central role has only grown due to the war with Israel, which has prompted questions and power struggles that will shape the future of the Islamic Republic.
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