Al Arabiya:

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Many might assume that after Israel and the United States launched a wave of devastating strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic would retreat from diplomacy, hardened and humiliated, unwilling to engage in negotiations. On the surface, that may seem logical – why would a country whose pride and sovereignty were violated seek to sit down with its attackers at the negotiating table? But that logic misreads the internal dynamics of the Iranian government and the grave pressure it is under. In reality, despite the recent destruction of key nuclear infrastructure and the exposure of its military vulnerabilities, Iran is more desperate than ever to reach a deal with the United States. Not because it wants to – but because it has no choice.

At the top of the list of pressures is the threat of the reimposition of UN “snapback” sanctions, a mechanism embedded in the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). These sanctions are not just symbolic slaps on the wrist – they are devastating economic measures that would further cripple Iran’s already fragile economy. Over the past several weeks, the so-called EU3 – Britain, France, and Germany – have made it unequivocally clear that if Iran fails to reach a new agreement with the US by the end of August 2025, they will initiate the snapback process at the United Nations. This is no idle threat; the European powers are aligned and prepared, and Iran knows it.

To understand the gravity of this threat, it’s essential to grasp what the snapback sanctions entail. When the JCPOA was originally negotiated, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2231, which lifted many of the previous multilateral sanctions that had crushed Iran’s economy throughout the 2000s. However, this resolution included a safety mechanism known as the “snapback” clause, allowing any of the participating parties to reimpose those sanctions if Iran was found to be in serious violation of its commitments. The snapback is unique in that it bypasses the standard Security Council veto process. If a participating country files a complaint and follows the procedural steps – including a 15-day dispute resolution window and referral to the UN Security Council – the reimposition of sanctions is automatic unless the Council affirmatively votes to continue lifting them. In other words, once the process starts, Iran is powerless to stop it.

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