The Guardian:

Andrew Roth in Washington

For US allies and rivals around the world, Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran have redrawn the calculus of the White House’s readiness to use force in the kind of direct interventions that the president said he would make a thing of the past under his isolationist “America First” foreign policy.

From Russia and China to Europe and across the global south, the president’s decision to launch the largest strategic bombing strike in US history indicates a White House that is ready to employ force abroad – but reluctantly and under the extremely temperamental and unpredictable leadership of the president.

“Trump being able to act and being willing to act when he saw an opportunity will definitely give [Vladimir] Putin pause,” said Fiona Hill, a former Trump national security adviser and one of the principal authors of the UK’s strategic defence review.

While Trump has pulled back from his earlier warnings about potential regime change in Iran, going from tweeting “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” to “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” within 72 hours, he has nonetheless reinforced Russian perceptions of the United States as an unpredictable and aggressive rival that will not unilaterally abandon its ability to use force abroad.

“It has some pretty dire warnings for Putin himself about what could happen at a time of weakness,” Hill said. “It will just convince Putin even more that no matter what the intent of a US president, the capability to destroy is something that has to be taken seriously.”

It also shows a shift in the calculus in Washington DC, where hawks – along with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu – were able to convince Trump that launching a strike on Iran was preferable to pursuing negotiations that had not yet failed.

That could have knock-on effects for the war in Ukraine, where Republicans and foreign policy hardliners have grown more vocal about Putin’s attacks on cities and the need for a tougher sanctions strategy. Although he hasn’t changed his policy on resuming military support to Ukraine, Trump is publicly more exasperated with Putin. When Putin offered Trump to mediate between Israel and Iran, Trump said he responded: “No, I don’t need help with Iran. I need help with you.”

In the immediate term, however, the strikes on Iran are unlikely to have an impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“I don’t see it as having a big impact on the Ukraine war, because although Iran was very helpful at the beginning stages in providing Russia with [Shahed] drones, Russia has now started manufacturing their own version and have actually souped them up,” said Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, during a roundtable discussion.

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