The New York Times:

By David E. Sanger

Developments in Iran in recent months could propel Mr. Trump into a negotiation with Tehran over the fate of its nuclear program and its role in the Middle East — or could drive him into the first military conflict of his new term.

Iran has never been weaker in modern times. The octopus arms that it used to squeeze Israel have been cut off: In rapid succession, Tehran has lost Hamas and Hezbollah; it has lost Syria, its transit zone for weapons; its missile attacks on Israel failed. And Israel’s Oct. 26 missile strike took out Tehran’s air defenses, and the defenses around its nuclear sites, along with the facilities used to make rocket fuel.

So it’s no surprise that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is talking about striking a new deal with the United States and the West. The only hitch is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is also stepping up its production of near-bomb-grade uranium and taking steps that might speed its way to a bomb.

Still, in their briefings to the incoming Trump administration, the Biden national security officials have said that while Iran has enough material to make four weapons quickly, they still see no evidence that Iran has made a decision to race for a bomb. But clearly the Iranian “weapons group,” the secret core military and scientific organizations that has kept the bomb designs warm, are positioning themselves to exercise that option.

In the run-up to the inauguration, Mr. Trump has talked about reviving his “maximum pressure” campaign, and when asked about possible military strikes, answers with an ominous “anything can happen.” It sounds a lot like the playbook he ran on North Korea in 2017, calling Kim Jong-un “Little Rocket Man” before embracing him during three meetings and an exchange of “beautiful” letters. (Those warm missives, now returned to the National Archives, didn’t lead to much. Negotiations failed, and North Korea’s arsenal has enlarged to somewhere between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons.)

The moment of decision could come if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, eager to seize the moment and perhaps extend his hold on power by moving to the next conflict, tells Mr. Trump he has decided to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. He would argue the country has never been more naked, unable to defend the sites or strike back. Then Mr. Trump will have to choose: Stop his close ally from striking, or risk having the United States sucked into a new conflict, early in his presidency.

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