Cartoon by Marian Kamensky

Midterms offer a glimmer of hope for US democracy

Financial Times Opinion: It is a rule of thumb in US politics that presidential parties have a bad time in midterm elections. Since the second world war, only Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W Bush in 2002 have seen their party gain House seats. That makes the Democrats’ limited losses under Joe Biden, against a backdrop of punishing inflation and the president’s dismal ratings, all the more notable. The forecast “red wave” proved rather a tame breaker. Two years of divided government — with the Republicans likely to control the House, though the Senate’s destiny for now remains unclear — promises to be ugly and divisive. Yet the broad shape of the results, and what was clearly a poor night for Donald Trump, give reason to breathe a little more easily over the wider threats to US democracy.

To be sure, Republican control even of the House alone, albeit by a smaller margin than expected, would spell the end of Biden’s legislative agenda. The January 6 investigation will be shut down. Kevin McCarthy, the likely next Speaker, has signalled plans to swamp the White House with subpoenas. Investigations into Biden’s administration and family are likely. The Democrats should then make the most of the coming “lame duck” session of Congress to publish the January 6 report and all its materials in full. They should also make priorities of lifting the debt ceiling, and pre-approving further support for Ukraine, between now and January, to avoid these issues becoming bloody battlegrounds in the next Congress.

Yet while the tribalism of Washington politics will be more entrenched — especially if the Senate, too, falls under GOP control — the results offered a glimpse of the US electorate’s baseline pragmatism. Exit polling showed gas and grocery prices, and rising crime, preoccupied voters as expected. But the future of American democracy, on which Biden had issued striking warnings, and the Supreme Court’s overturning of women’s constitutional right to abortion were prominent, too, among their concerns. One of the main reasons for the failure of a red wave to crash over the political seascape is that independent and swing voters, as well as moderate Republicans, remain deeply uncomfortable with the extremism of Trump and Trumpism.

Though JD Vance won the senate race in Ohio, many Trump-backed candidates fizzled — including the TV doctor Mehmet Oz in a crucial contest in Pennsylvania. So did deniers of the fact that Biden won the 2020 election, lessening worries that large numbers of “stop the steal” officials could end up in key state roles overseeing the next electoral process. There is anecdotal evidence that Trump’s prominence in the latter stages of the campaign, teasing rallies over his intention to run again in 2024, harmed Republican fortunes overall.

The former president still seems set to launch his 2024 campaign next week. But in Trump’s path to the Republican nomination now stands a major obstacle in the shape of Ron DeSantis, whose decisive re-election as Florida governor was one of the few unalloyed successes for the GOP. Any signs that the Trumpian grip on the Republicans could be broken are welcome, though DeSantis’s brand of authoritarian, culture-wars conservatism carries risks of its own.

Those colours will also be flying garishly in the new Republican-run House. Tuesday night’s outcome by no means marked the end of America’s embittered culture wars. But the results did suggest that what sociologists have described as the “exhausted majority” in the US had looked into the abyss, and stepped back from what they saw. The realisation of America’s worst fears is only ever an election away. For the time being, though, US democracy’s detractors have less to crow about.