At this year's Munich Security Conference, Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has urged European leaders to help Iranians topple the Iranian regime. But does Europe have any leverage to deliver on this?

By Shamil Shams | Niloofar Gholami both in Munich, DW

Ongoing tensions in Iran featured prominently at this year's Munich Security Conference (MSC), coming after the Islamist regime's deadly crackdown on protesters, and with US President Donald Trump continuing to put pressure on Tehran to end its nuclear program.

As Iran's hardline rulers hang on to power after the largest anti-regime protests in decades, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Iranian king and a political activist-in-exile, was active at the conference, pleading his case for regime change in Iran.

At a panel about Iran's future on Friday, as well as at a press conference on Saturday, Pahlavi called out the Iranian regime's suppression of human rights, especially the brutal crackdown on citizens during the anti-regime protests in January, which rights groups say killed thousands of people.

Pahlavi, who many Iranians think can unite the nation against 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's government, even presented a roadmap at the MSC for Iran's political future and a "transitional government."

After a call to action from Pahlavi, some 250,000 people took part in a demonstration in Munich on Saturday against the Iranian regime and in support of a Pahlavi-led opposition.

"I am here to guarantee a transition to a secular democratic future," he said in a speech during the rally.

"I am committed to be the leader of transition for you so we can one day have the final opportunity to decide the fate of our country through a democratic, transparent process to the ballot box."

But the creation of any transitional government depends on the collapse of the current regime.

Despite the current unprecedented challenges to its power, the regime is carrying on and has also reportedly intensified its domestic oppression.

Still, there were extensive discussions at the MSC about the possibility of regime change in Iran.

Will the US strike Iran?

The Iranian opposition-in-exile has signaled that it expects the United States to launch strikes that would eventually result in the dismantling of the fundamentalist regime.

During the anti-regime protests, US President Donald Trump famously claimed that help was coming for Iranians.

Now the Trump administration is engaged in negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program, something which analysts say is unlikely to yield a clear result.

"I think a lot of Iranians inside and outside hope that an intervention that will neutralize the regime's instrument of repression will finally give us an opportunity for a final solution," Pahlavi said at an MSC panel, arguing that he was asking for a "humanitarian intervention" to prevent more innocent lives being killed in the process.

After Trump stepped back from threats of military intervention over protest deaths, he returned to threats of force if the Iranian regime did not negotiate a new "deal" with the US on its nuclear program.

Last week, the US sent a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Arabian Sea, with Trump warning on Friday that it would be a "very bad day" for Iran if the regime does not make a deal.

Pahlavi admitted that the US president needs to give diplomacy a chance before opting for a military solution. He maintains that President Trump knows the Iranian people still believe in the president's promise made during the height of the demonstrations in January.

However, Karim Sadjadpour, a policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said regime change is easier said than done.

"Everybody in Washington, including President Trump, thinks that if they could push a button and get rid of the Iranian regime, they absolutely would," he told an MSC panel, adding that the Trump administration is possibly concerned about fallout such as that seen after US military intervention in Iraq and Libya.

However, Sadjadpour didn't rule out the possibility of a US strike on Iran.

"In 2018, Trump left the [2015] nuclear deal. In 2020, he assassinated Qassem Soleimani [military leader and Khamenei's close aide]. Last summer, he dropped 14 bunker-busters on Iran's nuclear facilities," Sadjadpour said, adding he believes that the chances of Trump striking Iran are higher than the two sides reaching a nuclear deal.

Europe prefers diplomacy to force

As the US continues to put pressure on the Iranian regime with the threat of force, the EU has urged deescalation, and has shown preference towards using sanctions and offering support for civil society within Iran.

In January, when the Trump administration seemed close to striking Iran, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told a press conference alongside EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that the Iranian people "don't want regime change forced by external powers" and warned of unforeseen consequences.

Kallas said history is "full of examples" where regimes have been toppled, "but the question is what comes after."

"You need the alternatives, really from inside, to have a functioning state."

For Iran's exiled crown prince Pahlavi, the Europeans holding off on endorsing US military action against the regime could be seen as equivalent to doing nothing to help force the regime out.

Although Europe plays a major role in sanctioning Iran over its nuclear program, should the US strike the regime, statements at the MSC offered no clarity on what stance Europe would take, as officials have continued to emphasize diplomacy over use of force.

In 2015, major European powers helped broker a landmark agreement aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program, particularly uranium enrichment, in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany).

It was dubbed as "horrible" and "one sided" by Trump, who pulled the US out of the deal in 2018 during his first term as president, much to the consternation of Washington's European partners.

As Trump pushes for a new nuclear deal with Iran, with a military option on the table, the Europeans may be forced to wait and see.

"The starting point must be the Iranian people demanding freedom, and Europe must align its actions with that reality," said European Parliament President Roberta Metsola at the MSC.

She argued that the EU's decision to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization marks a turning point, adding that the time for "routine diplomacy" was over.

"Europe must send a clear signal to those risking their lives in protest: We stand with you," she stressed.

No more business as usual with Iran?

Last year, Europe also reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran's violations of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, piling more financial pressure on the regime. The protests in January were partly driven by economic grievances including high unemployment and inflation.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has admitted that business as usual with Iran might not be possible anymore. After the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in July 2025, Tehran stopped cooperating with the IAEA.

"This cannot go on forever. There is a political situation here … on our part, we have been making some progress, but these [nuclear] facilities are there, nuclear material is there — notably highly enriched uranium, which we must continue to monitor. So everything goes in parallel," Grossi underlined.

Another round of nuclear talks between US and Iranian representatives is due in Geneva next week with Oman again serving as mediator.