Cartoon by Marian Kamensky

Why Iran’s Supreme Leader Gave Way to Talks with Trump Administration

Scott Lucas

EA World: On March 8, addressing officials and military personnel, Iran’s Supreme Leader rejected a letter from Donald Trump broaching the possibility of discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The insistence on the part of some bully states on negotiations is not to resolve issues, but to dominate and impose their own expectations. The Islamic Republic of Iran will definitely not accept their demands,” Ayatollah Khamenei assured.

Five weeks later in Oman, Iranian officials were engaging — albeit indirectly — with Trump Administration representatives, led by the real estate developed Steve Witkoff.

So why did the Supreme Leader relent?

“Two senior Iranian officials” gave the answer to Farnaz Fassihi of the New York Times: Khamenei was told that Iran’s economy might collapse — and his regime might be overthrown — if he did not modify his anti-American stance and rhetoric.

The urgent, hours-long meeting included the heads of the three Government branches: President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head
Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

All three said negotiations, direct if necessary, were essential to avert the danger to Khamenei’s rule. The currency had reached new historic lows with a fall of almost 35% since late November. Iranians were enduring a lack of gas, electricity, and water. Infrastructure was in dire shape. Pezeshkian said management of the crises could not be maintained, as the government announced new power cuts for Tehran this month. The production lines of factories were threatened and in some areas severe water shortages were forcing the closure of schools and government offices.

And if the Supreme Leader held out against talks, they warned, military strikes by the US and/or Israel on Iran’s nuclear complexes at Natanz and Fordow were inevitable. If Tehran retaliated, the wider conflict could further damage the economy and spark protests and strikes. Qalibaf said the situation could quickly spiral out of control.

So at the end of the meeting, Khamenei granted permission for talks, initially indirect. If these went well, direct negotiations could follow.

The Supreme Leader appointed his senior advisors — former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi on foreign policy, former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on strategy, and Mohammad Forouzandeh on military matters — to manage the negotiations in close coordination with the Foreign Ministry.

On March 28, Iran sent a formal reply to Trump’s letter with its acceptance.

On Saturday, after four exchanges over 2 1/2 hours with the Americans, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi briefly met Witkoff in the presence of Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi.

Araqchi said the talks took place in a “constructive atmosphere based on mutual respect” and will continue on Saturday.

And Pezeshkian has already hinted that the talks can go much farther. He said on Wednesday that Khamenei is open to allowing American businesses and investors to enter Iran’s markets.