Middle East Monitor:

by Kurniawan Arif Maspul

What is unfolding in Iran today is not merely another chapter in a long story of unrest. It is a stress test for the global order, for the credibility of emerging powers, and for the moral grammar of international diplomacy at a moment when multipolarity is no longer theoretical but painfully real.

Since late December 2025, Iran has been gripped by nationwide protests triggered by an economic freefall. The numbers alone are staggering. The rial collapsed to around 1.42 million to the US dollar. Inflation surged beyond 40 per cent. Basic commodities vanished from shelves. What began with strikes by shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar rapidly spread across all 31 provinces, morphing from economic anger into unmistakably political defiance. Chants no longer pleaded for relief but demanded an end to clerical rule. By mid-January 2026, human rights organisations and AP confirmed that at least 2000 civilians, including children, had been killed by security forces. Internet access was cut nationwide, a familiar signal of a state bracing for survival.

These protests are smaller than the 2022–23 ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ uprising, yet they may prove more destabilising. The reason lies in the economy. Iran’s unrest is now anchored in material despair rather than symbolic outrage. Power shortages, fuel price hikes, and the removal of subsidised exchange rates have hollowed out daily life. According to the Atlantic Council, Iran’s GDP growth lags far behind that of every other BRICS member, while inflation is the highest in the bloc. This is not the profile of a rising power. It is the anatomy of exhaustion.

And yet, this exhausted state now sits inside BRICS.

Iran’s accession in 2024 was celebrated in grand language about multipolarity and Global South solidarity. In reality, it was contentious from the outset. Reuters reported that India resisted admitting states under UN sanctions, while Brazil and South Africa worried about antagonising Western partners. Only China and Russia pushed unequivocally, seeing Iran as a strategic counterweight to US influence. That gamble now confronts reality.

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