The New Yorker:

The standard way of looking at Donald Trump’s narrow Electoral College victory, in 2016, is through the realm of geography: by eking out victories in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he overcame a deficit of about 2.9 million ballots in the popular vote. This narrative is perfectly accurate, but it isn’t the only way to analyze what happened. Another key to Trump’s success was his strong support among older voters, who tend to turn out in large numbers, despite being a relatively small part of the electorate.

Among voters aged forty-four and under, Hillary Clinton bested Trump by fourteen percentage points, according to exit polls. But Trump carried voters between the ages of fifty and sixty-four by eight percentage points, and voters aged sixty-five or older by seven points. State by state, the numbers varied. He led Clinton among voters aged sixty-five and over by four points in Michigan, by ten points in Pennsylvania, and by one point in Wisconsin. Given the thin margins of victory that Trump enjoyed in these states, support from seniors was essential to the majority he achieved in the Electoral College.

This year, retaining the support of seniors is obviously central to Trump’s reëlection chances. But a number of polls released this week show that he has slipped badly in this key demographic. According to a survey from the New York Times and Siena College, he is now running two points behind Joe Biden at the national level among voters aged sixty-five and over. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he is trailing Biden by double digits.

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