Modern Diplomacy:

ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under the leadership of the temporary Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, have previously denounced Alawites as apostates.

BY HAMEED JABERY

The existing state of the Alawites holds significance in this assessment, followed by an examination of the Iran-United States confrontation. In general, the United States’ Middle East policy in recent decades, in many cases, has been heavily influenced by Israel’s situation. Hence, not only the overall rupture of relations between Iran and the United States since the 1979 revolution, but also their face-off during the Syrian crisis and the Arab Spring, and even considerations of changing conditions and regimes, are largely shaped by the Israel factor. Thus, I opine that unraveling the intricacies of the Iran-United States confrontation in present-day Syria, and to a certain extent, the Alawites, largely hinges on Israel. As such, a portion of my analysis delves into the nature of Israel’s approach, indirectly shedding light on the confrontation between Iran and the United States in relation to the Alawite issue.

The Alawites

ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under the leadership of the temporary Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, have previously denounced Alawites as apostates. During the March demonstrations, the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria (MCLSS), commanded by Brigadier General Ghiath Suleiman Dala, declared its establishment. Additionally, in the widespread protests in March, approximately 1,700 innocent Alawite civilians lost their lives. Many of the victims have fled to Lebanon in fear for their safety. Furthermore, forced displacement of hundreds of Alawite families from Damascus was documented in late April, as part of an effort to alter the demographic makeup of the capital city. Statistics indicate that almost half a million Alawites have migrated from Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs to the western coastline. Moreover, in the last month alone, 30,000 Syrian Alawites have sought refuge in Lebanon. Even some of the victims even had a past of enduring imprisonment under the Assad regime. Therefore, the nature of the conflict has shifted towards a psychological and ideological confrontation.

The New Elites

From the onset of the Arab Spring, Syria’s central government has been embroiled in a grave crisis, one that persists even with the regime change. Today, Syria is governed by Ahmed al-Sharaa and his fellow Salafi cohorts, whose scant ideologies offer no solutions for the existing turmoil, nor any strategies or plans for managing the heightened tensions.  A majority of the prominent positions and responsibilities within the government have been filled by ex-members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, hailing from a Salafi background and roots. Conversely, numerous meritorious individuals have been disregarded, with ideological affiliation being the primary criterion for assigning responsibilities. For instance, the Minister of Justice holds a degree in Sharia law, signaling the supremacy of ideology over governance and efficacy. Moreover, a significant number of the supporters of Ahmad al-Sharaa are non-Syrians, serving through their ideological allegiances to the caliphate and Islamic state.

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