The Arab Weekly:

Weakened by war and diplomatic deadlock, Iran’s clerical elite stands at a crossroads: defy pressure to halt its nuclear activity and risk further Israeli and US attack, or concede and risk a leadership fracture.

For now, the Islamic Republic establishment is focusing on immediate survival over longer-term political strategy. A fragile ceasefire ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli air strikes, followed by US strikes on three Iranian nuclear installations.

Both sides declared victory but the war exposed the military vulnerabilities and punctured the image of deterrence maintained by a major Middle East power and Israel’s arch regional foe. Iranian insiders told Reuters the political establishment now views negotiations with the US, aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear ambitions, as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril.

The strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, which included killings of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, shocked Tehran, kicking off just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with Washington.

While Tehran accused Washington of “betraying diplomacy”, some hard-line lawmakers and military commanders blamed officials who advocated diplomacy with Washington, arguing the dialogue proved a “strategic trap” that distracted the armed forces.

However, one political insider, who like others requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said the leadership now leaned towards talks as “they  have seen the cost of military confrontation”.

Rebuffing hard-liners
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that resuming talks with the United States “does not mean we intend to surrender”, addressing hard-liners opposing further nuclear diplomacy after the war. He added: “You don’t want to talk? What do you want to do? … Do you want to go (back) to war?”

His remarks were criticised by hard-liners including Revolutionary Guards commander Aziz Ghazanfari, who warned that foreign policy demands discretion and that careless statements could have serious consequences.

Ultimately, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the final say. Insiders said he and the clerical power structure had reached a consensus to resume nuclear negotiations, viewing them as vital to the Islamic Republic’s survival.

Iran’s foreign ministry said no decision has been made on the resumption of nuclear talks.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu have warned they will not hesitate to hit Iran again if it resumes enrichment of uranium, a possible pathway to developing nuclear weapons.

Last week, Trump warned that if Iran restarted enrichment despite the June strikes on its key production plants, “we’ll be back”‌. Tehran responded with a vow of forceful retaliation.

Still, Tehran fears future strikes could cripple political and military coordination, and so has formed a defence council to ensure command continuity even if the 86-year-old Khamenei must relocate to a remote hideaway to avoid assassination.

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