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Israel and Hezbollah step back from war, but are there any true winners?

Negar Mojtahedi

Iran International:  Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from a regional war—for now. While daily rocket barrages persist along the Israel-Lebanon border, no clear winners have emerged, and the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

It was August 25 around 4:30 in the morning when Sarit Zehavi heard loud explosions.

"Literally the ground was shaking."

She didn't know what was happening.

"The blasts were truly something that we have never heard in the past."

It was the IDF launching preemptive air strikes in Southern Lebanon to thwart a major attack after Israeli intelligence gathered information on the incoming threat, according to IDF officials.

Israel prevented Hezbollah's full response to the killing of its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr on July 30 from materializing.

Iran's proxy was meant to reportedly carry out hundreds of rockets and UAV strikes in Israel, while also firing accurate missiles at security targets near Tel Aviv. It was described as a large-scale ariel attack by Hezbollah, according to the IDF.

Sarit Zehavi specialized in the IDF's military intelligence and now runs an organization researching and analyzing Israel's security challenges in the North, but above all she is an Israeli Northern citizen herself, who lives with Hezbollah just 9 kilometers from her doorstep.

This is her reality. Since October 7, there have been daily attacks in the North and more than 60 thousand Northern Israeli residents are refugees in their own country.

And that also affects the economy with thousands of Northerners not at work, and those who remain, risking their lives to cultivate the fields and farm. The ongoing war against Hamas has tested Israel's economy, and opening up a second front with Hezbollah could cripple it.

"All of us civilians of the North that morning ran to the bomb shelters, including myself and my family. It just didn't stop for about more than an hour. Since this war started, I was very much afraid of a scenario of fire to all over the borderline, because I was afraid that with this scenario, we will see an infiltration as well," said Zehavi.

There has been a weekly average of 60 Hezbollah attacks in the North since the start of the war 10 months ago, which amounts to 2,804 attacks so far, according to Zehavi.

Hezbollah and its allies have been threatening a retaliatory attack since the assassination of Shukr, which Israel claimed responsibility for. The Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement that this “first phase” of retaliation was “successfully completed”.

Nasrallah made a televised speech after the heavy exchange of fire. In it, he said the main focus of Hezbollah’s attack was the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, which is home to the Mossad and the military intelligence group Unit 8200.

He rejected statements by Israeli officials that the attack had failed, saying that Israel was keeping information on the damage “a secret”.

Many of Hezbollah's rockets are unguided, but it also has precision missiles, drones and anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. Since the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has advanced its capabilities.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Hezbollah was “thrown off balance” and its attempted attack on Israel. He said Israel prevented Hezbollah’s attack minutes before it was supposed to be carried out.

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani posted to X that Israel has lost its "deterrent" power, saying it was unable to anticipate the time and place of Hezbollah's "limited and managed attack." >>>