Financial Times:

Iran’s response to Donald Trump’s shock assassination of the Islamic republic’s most powerful commander was swift and powerful.

Just five days after US drone strikes killed Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad airport, Tehran launched what it said were “tens of missiles” at two Iraqi bases hosting US troops.

The 2020 assault was one of its biggest of its kind against American bases. But crucially, the Islamic republic telegraphed the assault to the US president through back channels, no deaths were reported and the arch foes stepped back from the brink of war.

The calculated gamble by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, ultimately met two goals: to show supporters the regime could confront the world’s superpower, while avoiding a full-blown conflict that would imperil its survival.

It was an example of what analysts describe as Khamenei’s long-held policy of “no war, no peace” — display belligerence, threaten escalation against foes, act through proxies or covert operations, while keeping conflict away from the republic’s shores.

But after a combination of miscalculations, hubris and, analysts say, a fateful failure to understand Israel’s radical shift in risk appetite in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack, Iran today finds itself battling for its survival — forced to fight the full-blown war it sought to avoid. Should Trump decide to join the conflict, the stakes will only rise.

“Iran only has bad options now. Khamenei stuck to this idea of ‘no war, no peace’ for too long. It’s been untenable for years,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Now Iran is faced with a war it cannot win — and will eventually have to accept a deal [over its nuclear programme] on worse terms than before.”

A week after launching its assault on Iran, Israeli strikes have decimated Iran’s top military ranks, destroyed many of its missile launchers, struck its nuclear facilities, and secured near-total air dominance. Tehran continues to fire missile barrages at Israel.

But the gap in military and intelligence capability has been stark — Israel is armed with some of the most sophisticated US equipment, including F-35 jets, against an enemy heavily dependent on proxies, missiles and drones.

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