CNN:

By Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN

Iran is currently mulling over US President Donald Trump’s offer for talks on a new nuclear deal. Its answer will hinge on one key factor: Whether it believes that it can come out of it undefeated.

Last week, Trump sent Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a rare letter proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal, with a two-month ultimatum to reach an agreement, a source familiar with the letter’s contents told CNN.

The communication contained “more of a threatening posture,” but apparently also offered “some opportunities” for Iran, the country’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday, saying a response will come “in the coming days.”

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivered the letter to the president of the United Arab Emirates last week, according to the source, and a UAE official passed it on the Iranians.

In an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson over the weekend, Witkoff offered some insight into the letter’s contents.

“It roughly said: I’m a president of peace, that’s what I want. There’s no reason for us to do this militarily. We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material, and I’d like to get to that place, because the alternative is not a very good alternative.”

This month, the United States launched strikes on one of the few remaining Iran-allied militias still posing a potent threat to its interests. The attacks on Yemen’s Houthi rebels served as a warning shot – a preview of what Iran itself might face if it refuses to cooperate, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told ABC News.

With Iran’s economy in freefall, its grip on the region slipping and public anger mounting, US officials may see a perfect opportunity to force Tehran’s hand – by tightening the economic noose and making the threat of military action unmistakably clear.

But experts warn it won’t be that straightforward: Iran is deeply wary of appearing weak, and the last thing it wants is to be seen as capitulating to Trump.

“This is a very fluid moment,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN. “There is scope for miscalculation, there is scope for crisis, scope of a military attack on Iran.”

Tehran has in recent weeks repeatedly rejected direct negotiations over a potential nuclear deal with the US, saying it won’t come to the table with a gun pointed to its head and fears that Washington will once again renege on its commitments, as it did seven years ago during Trump’s first presidential term.

In its response to Trump’s recent letter, Iran will take into account “both the threats and the opportunities,” Araghchi said, vowing that it wouldn’t negotiate “under pressure and threats or increased sanctions.”

Talks would have to take place “under equal footing,” he said.

For Iran, giving in to Trump’s maximalist approach of piling on more sanctions and repeatedly threatening military action equates to surrender, a position it is not willing to entertain, experts said.

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