Iran's exiled opposition is increasingly fractured as the country marks the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution on Wednesday – with activists, researchers and journalists reporting intimidation campaigns and deep political divisions that make collective action difficult.

Aabla Jounaïdi, RFI

Opponents of the Iranian regime living abroad say that rather than uniting in an effort to change realities on the ground, they are splitting and turning on each other.

A minority has created what some describe as a climate of fear – particularly on social media – targeting anyone who voices disagreement.

“It’s tough right now,” British-Iranian anthropologist Pardis Shafafi, who researches state violence and political repression in Iran, told Norwegian news site Filter Nyheter.

Shafafi, a member of the EHESS, a Paris-based academic research centre, said she did not expect her comments to trigger attacks from a pro-monarchist group in Europe.

She described heightened activism from radical fringes of the opposition in exile.

"When you post things online, it's very common for a stranger to question you about yourself and the people you follow," she said. "And it very often spirals into accusations of espionage."

Shafafi is not the only one reporting this pattern: blacklists and death threats issued against journalists or researchers accused of being propagandists.

Hiding in silence

Whether monarchist, left-wing, nationalist or Islamist, opposition figures abroad continue to tear each other apart.

In France, several public figures of Iranian origin have described – publicly or anonymously –receiving threats after speaking out in ways seen as too sympathetic to the Iranian regime. One filed a complaint against unknown individuals over death threats but declined to give an interview.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's former king and the best-known opposition figure abroad, has tried to distance himself from the most radical voices in the monarchist camp. But those voices have succeeded in creating a toxic climate.

Self-censorship is spreading among opponents.

"The majority is hiding in silence, out of fear," said Aïda Tavakoli, a French-Iranian activist and founder of We Are Iranian Students, a non-partisan secular organisation linked to student opposition groups in Iran.

The activist told RFI she can detect in the most extreme positions taken by some – "a minority", she said – the immense pain of experiencing grief from a distance, mixed with survivor's guilt and the absence of a place to channel anger.

Prison scars

"Many activists now in exile were imprisoned by the Islamic Republic," Shafafi said. "For these people, contradiction is not just a narrative disagreement. It is the denial of the most traumatic event that happened to them."

Shafafi is the author of The Long Iranian Revolution – State Violence and Silenced Histories, due to be published in June.

Extreme polarisation within the opposition is also fuelled by an inability to agree on the legacy of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But after the worst repression ever experienced by modern Iran, some want to believe in a resurgence.

"I have many more people from all political sides – monarchists, republicans, left-wing, right-wing, feminists and non-feminists – contacting me to ask whether we could find unity because we don't recognise ourselves in the extremes on either side," Tavakoli said.

At a conference in Paris last week, Tavakoli recognised some of the people behind violent comments posted on social media. "They came to thank me and said it helped them to understand that our disagreement is not personal violence," she told RFI.

Cyber pressure

It is all the more important to work to overcome disagreements, Shafafi said, because the authorities exploit them.

"A large part of these conflicts is a smokescreen created by trolls working for the regime," she said. "It equips and finances this cyber-army to ensure the opposition remains fragmented and to discredit anyone who manages to rally support.

"We saw this pattern in 2022 and it is important to remember it. What the regime fears most is a popular and united movement that is coherent and capable of opposing it."

This story was adapted from the original version in French by Aabla Jounaïdi