Let me be as blunt as I possibly can. As long as Khamenei "Exists", the top echelon (IRGC/Basij/Mullahcracy etc.) sitting atop the "Mollah Mafia" in Iran, will remain.
Western so called "Experts on Iran" namely everyone American, Iranian, or most stylish of all Iranian-American who derives their weekly food budget from an "Institution" or "Thinktank", is now asking when the "cracks and fissures" in the "Leadership" will begin to show. And that, that is what will cause the ultimate ironically God-Given and Allah Blessed collapse of the Islamic Republic.
Which anyone who knows Iran will agree, is UTTER NONSENSE.
Whether he is 86, 96, or 69 for that matter, as long as Khamenei breathes Tehran's polluted (yet somehow still sweet) air, NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO LEAVE.
So far the protesters have talked a wonderful talk, namely calling out "Death to the Dictator!", which is wonderful to hear. But no one on the street has apparently sought to find where Khamenei is actually holed up now. So they could effectively apply the chant literally, not just vocally.
The other reason Khamenei must not be allowed to stay, but also cannot be allowed to leave, is that if Khamenei is convinced to leave, it would invoke the rumored emergency contigency plan that will allow him to tap the alleged $45-75 Billion stashed overseas to conduct various counter-operations to put down any anti-Islamic Revolution Revolution from afar.
For now however, the top echelon of Iran's always mysterious leaders, do not dare pack their Gucci bags and clickety clack their Balenciaga heels off to their waiting Swiss chalets. No one is thinking of cracking open a bottle from the carefully curated wine cellars in Baku. But even though everyone is now thinking of saying "Akhheysh!" one day, no one will dare say it now.
That's because their entire "God-is-a-Great Grift" is derived from being "Made Men" with the authorization certificate given to them by Iran's "God-Father", Khamenei.
Regardless of if he even knows what is happenening on the streets, as long as the "Bad-Akhlagh Buddha" is alive, their certificates are valid. Their complete authority is authorized. Which is why so many Iranians are dying in the streets.
There is a number. No one knows what that number specifically is, but there is one. And everyone knows that when that number is reached, Iranians usually give up, and go back inside their cold homes.
The longer this goes on, the more people die, the closer we get to that number.
As a result, at this time, there is no fracture, no fissure, no disloyalty, not cracks in the ranks.
Because no one would dare.
The first person to vacate and evacuate and abandon their highly lucrative post, would be immediately replaced, and his replacement's first task would be to go and get the defector. And his family. And his dog. And the cat. And the goldfish. And then all the money.
Everyone in the ranks knows this.
But when Khamenei is no longer "Corrupt upon the Earth", all bets are off, and everyone is let off their leash, out of their contract, the certification is null and void, the authority is unauthorized, and those that have all the money that Allah ever conceived, can choke-chain freely go to their Swiss Chalets, and crack open all that wine. In Baku.
Best of all, they never have to worry about a late night knock at the big beautiful wooden door that those chalets always seem to have.
So, if the Iran Experts who are waiting for the "Top echelon of Iran's sophisticated leadership hierarchy" to abandon their posts and make a run for it, so the Islamic Republic Iran can then finally collapse, as long as the God kissed Supreme Leader Khamenei keeps kicking it old school, they are "reading blind".
Did I mention that I truly hate that this is where we are now? OK, good... Because this truly sucks.
Ask CHATGPT for an estimate on the cumulative expenditures for military hardware by the major states around the Persian Gulf (i.e., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc.) from 1979 to 2025 - the estimate (taken with a grain of salt) is around $2T. By the IR regime's own accounting, it has spent somewhere around $1T to $2T to develop its nuclear weapons over the past three decades to no avail. Thanks to PM Netanyahu and TACO for temporarily neutralizing that threat. The IR regime has already declared their commitment to reestablish and restore their nuclear ambitions which means they will pour more of their resources into that effort. Similarly, the Persian Guld states will continue to renew their military arsenal and inventories with newer weapon systems. Do you see the cycle and the trend in this Groundhog Day nightmare? These numbers and deals are too big and too lucrative for the CEOs of the defense contractors, arms dealers, the middlemen, the lobbyists, and the politicians to give up for a stable Middle East and a friendly regime in Iran. The cash cow for the entities aforementioned above will continue to provide milk, so why do you want to kill the cow. There is nothing new in this saga that hasn't been told or thought of before. It's just a reminder that pops up in our minds every time Iranians make an attempt to fight and defeat the evil IR regime. The late Shah of Iran warned everyone not to fall for the conspiracies and get stuck in the abyss of bottomless 1979 devolution! Unfortunately, nobody heeded those warnings and here is the current state of the Iranian people - country-less, hopeless, aimless, solutions-less, friendless, money-less, and fill in the blank -----less!