The Arab Weekly:

Mohammed El-Houni

Whether the confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the US administration ends with an agreement that strips Tehran of its nuclear and missile programmess, or with an American military attack that destroys Iran’s strategic infrastructure, the region is entering a new phase. The question is no longer whether the Iranian regime will survive, but rather what the future will look like after its demise, and how that outcome will affect the Arab world, which has lived for four decades under Tehran’s influence.

What is at stake is not just the fall of a political regime, but rather the redrawing of the entire map of the Middle East, with internal Iranian calculations intertwined with regional and international balances. This will produce new realities that are difficult to predict but will determine to a great extent the future of the region for decades to come.

The first scenario that could unfold is that of an internal transition involving traditional opposition actors. There are the monarchists, who can tap into the popular nostalgia for the Pahlavi era, and the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), who are based abroad, and present themselves as potential alternatives. However, internal divisions and a shallow popular base of these forces make this scenario more of a political pipe dream than a realistic possibility.

The experience of the Iranian opposition in exile very much resembles that of Arab opposition movements that failed to constitute viable alternatives after the fall of their respective regimes. These movements were unable to fill the void, leaving the field open to other forces that were better organised or more capable of imposing themselves by force.

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