Al Jazeera:

By Virginia Pietromarchi

Protests in Iran have petered out. Tens of thousands have been arrested. And those accused of supporting the unrest have had business assets seized and are being pursued on “terrorism” charges. The authorities – for now – have reasserted control.

Yet, in the shadow of the apparent calm, the very same grievances that sparked the unrest remain, leaving Iran with little choice but to make tough compromises to win sanctions relief and fix the economy or face further upheaval, experts say. With a battered economy, a weakened network of regional allies and the looming threat of a US attack, Iran is at a crossroads.

“This is not a stable status quo – it’s just not tenable,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. “I am not predicting that the system will hit rock bottom tomorrow, but it’s in a spiral and from this point on, it can only go down if it refuses to change”.

The recent demonstrations erupted in late December when protests over a currency collapse morphed into a nationwide upheaval calling for the overthrow of the Islamic republic – Iran’s system of governance.

The authorities’ response led to one of the most violent confrontations since the country’s 1979 revolution.

Iranian state media said the protests had left 3,117 people dead, including 2,427 civilians and members of the security forces. US-based human rights activists say that more than 5,000 people have been killed. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the figures.

Economic crisis

Protests in past years, such as the unrest sparked by a fuel price hike in 2019 or the women-led demonstrations in 2022, were followed by the state dispensing subsidies and loosening up on social restrictions. But this time around, it has limited options for addressing the distress that sparked the recent demonstrations.

Due to decades of international sanctions, as well as mismanagement and corruption, the Iranian rial’s value has nose-dived, and oil revenues have shrunk. Inflation last year peaked at more than 42 percent, according to International Monetary Fund data. By comparison, the rate was at 6.8 in 2016 – a year after Iran and world powers signed a deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 – during his first term in office – and reimposed sanctions.

On top of that, Iran suffers from electricity outages and chronic water shortages, making life increasingly difficult for the average citizen.

To get some sanctions relief, Iran needs to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration. But that would require Khamenei making concessions on what have been Iran’s core foreign policy pillars, namely its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles and supporting a network of allies across the region.

They have been key components of Iran’s “forward defence” strategy – a military doctrine aimed at preventing fighting from reaching Iranian territory. Changes to any of these elements would represent a profound shift in the security architecture built up by Khamenei. While in the past, the supreme leader has shown openness to partially curbing the nuclear programme, concessions over missiles and the so-called axis of resistance have been non-negotiable.

“It is unclear whether Iran is willing to formally accept restrictions” on these three elements, said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of news site Amwaj.media. “As Trump has threatened a renewed bombing campaign if Iran resumes enrichment, Khamenei seems paralysed in his decision-making,” he added.

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