Iran International:

Dalga Khatinoglu 

The fate of the Iranian economy is increasingly shaping debates about the country’s future—one that may prove decisive regardless of how its current political struggles unfold.

Public frustration over rising living costs has once again spilled into protests across the country, shining a harsh light on how state resources are allocated and managed.

As demonstrations continue, economic indicators are emerging as a central measure of both state capacity and public confidence.

That tension is visible in Iran’s draft budget for the next fiscal year, beginning on March 22. The document offers a snapshot of priorities at a moment marked by military confrontation, diplomatic strain and widening economic pressure.

A budget shaped by security concerns

According to the draft, the government has projected just 1,850 trillion rials in oil export revenues for itself—equivalent, at the official exchange rate, to roughly $2 billion.

By contrast, allocations tied to military and security institutions account for at least 16 percent of total budgetary resources, while the share of oil export revenues linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is estimated to be several times larger than that of the civilian government.

Funding for religious institutions is projected at close to half of the government’s oil income.

At the same time, projected tax revenues have risen by 63 percent, signaling a heavier burden on households and businesses amid high inflation and weak purchasing power.

Taken together, the figures raise questions about how effectively state revenues are being translated into economic stability or improved living standards. They also complicate expectations that external relief alone—such as sanctions easing—would be sufficient to reverse economic decline.

Go to link