Middle East Online:

Sudani's bloc is set to win the most seats but fall short of a majority, potentially meaning months of post-election talks among Shiite and Sunni Muslim as well as Kurdish parties to divvy up government posts and pick a PM.

Iraqis began casting ballots on Tuesday in parliamentary elections to choose a new 329-member legislature, state television said, with nationwide polling set to close at 6:00 p.m. (1500 GMT).

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani seeks a second term in an exercise that a growing young electorate increasingly views as a vehicle for established parties to divide up the Middle East nation's oil wealth.

Sudani's bloc is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority, potentially meaning months of post-election talks among Shiite and Sunni Muslim as well as Kurdish parties to divvy up government posts and pick a prime minister.

Elections in Iraq are increasingly marked by low turnout. Many voters have lost faith in a system which has failed to break a pattern of state capture by powerful parties with armed loyalists, while ordinary Iraqis complain of endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.

Turnout hit a record low in is projected by analysts and pollsters to slip below a record low of 41% in 2021, thanks partly to general disillusionment and to a boycott by populist Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who counts hundreds of thousands of voters among his core support base.

DISILLUSIONMENT WITH THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

The vote this year features a raft of young candidates hoping to break into politics, but their chances against old patronage networks are uncertain.

"This election will not depend on popularity. It will depend on spending money," former prime minister Haider al-Abadi said during a televised interview last month.

Analysts warn that low participation among civilians could further erode confidence in a system critics say benefits the few while neglecting the many.

"For Iraq's 21 million registered voters, Tuesday's ballot may do little more than endorse a familiar political order," said Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis.

"The results are not expected to make dramatic changes in the Iraqi political map."

Still, the vote, in which results are expected after several days, comes at a sensitive time for the country.

The next government will need to navigate the delicate balance between US and Iranian influence, and manage dozens of armed groups that are closer to Tehran and answerable more to their own leaders than to the state, all while facing growing pressure from Washington to dismantle those militias.

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