Manara:

With Iran’s declining confidence in Russia following the 12-day war with Israel, Tehran has turned to China for aerial defence weaponry, fighter jets and the development of new economic corridors via Central Asia.

Emil Avdaliani

Ever since the war in Ukraine began, Russia and Iran have expanded their military and political cooperation, which culminated in the signing of a major bilateral agreement that the two inked earlier this year.[i] The development of their relations, however, always stopped short of achieving a full-scale alliance. Neither side has provided ironclad commitments on mutual defence and such a clause was notably absent from the 2025 comprehensive agreement as well. Moreover, the supply of certain critical air-defence systems (such as the S-400), modern fighter jets (like the Su-35), and other equipment has not materialized, indicating that there are still limits to Moscow–Tehran cooperation.

There were no expectations that Moscow would come to Tehran’s help in the latter’s latest round of confrontation with Israel in June, during which Israeli and U.S. forces bombed Iran’s nuclear and aerial defence sites across the country. Iranian politicians have nevertheless voiced their concern about the state of Russia–Iran ties. This is in large part due to Tehran’s suspicions of Moscow in the wake of US-Russia talks, which they expect will not only concern Ukraine but also cover the Iranian issue in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges.[ii] The fear of this remains a major concern for the Iranian leadership, further nurturing the already present distrust between Tehran and Moscow.

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