Modern Diplomacy:

BY MARWA SOBHY MONTASSER

The Return of Strategic Uncertainty

The Middle East has returned to center stage in US foreign policy. Donald Trump’s return to politics has already been preceded by spectacle, bombastic language, and real shifts in US military deployments. To Washington, the Gulf is geopolitically irreplaceable: it offers nearly half of the world’s oil reserves and over 40% of natural gas reserves, and is the geographical pivot between Asia, Europe, and Africa. It is important to Trump to ensure American primacy in the region in order to avoid allowing China, Russia, or Iran from filling any vacuum. Trump’s dramatic and surprising approach to diplomacy is always a cover for deeper strategic moves. His announcement of an upcoming “Middle East event that will change everything” is little more than kabuki, but experience tells us such threatcasts are harbingers of actual American policy shifts in the region. As Iran mobilizes soldiers, China burrows into Gulf digital and oil infrastructure, and Russia reinforces its leadership in OPEC+, the Gulf is being reshaped as the focal battlefield of 21st-century geopolitics.

Trump’s Gulf Strategy: Energy, Alliances, and Symbolism

American grand strategy in the Gulf has long been tied to two imperatives: protecting energy supplies and gaining a balance of power in its favor. While Washington’s dependence on Gulf oil has declined with the growth of shale production, the international economy remains addicted: 20% of all seaborne petroleum still passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. A single interruption there would raise world oil prices by 20–30% in a matter of days.

Trump’s latest gestures towards the Gulf rulers—spoken in conciliatory tones and symbolic regrets—need to be understood less as theatrics and more in the context of insurance. By reasserting ties with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, Washington desires to preclude these capitals from receding further into Beijing’s economic sphere or Moscow’s energy arc. Symbolism is strategy in a multipolar world. Gestures are designed to limit hedging by Gulf monarchies and reassert the perception that the U.S. remains the indispensable security partner.

Between 2015 and 2022, the Gulf purchased more than $65 billion of U.S. arms, ranking second as a regional buyer of U.S. defense exports following Asia. Purchases have consisted of Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems, precision-guided bombs, and deals to sell the F-35 to the UAE. For Trump, the expansion of this defense-industrial partnership is not only a security issue but also a way of ensuring Gulf oil revenues are reinvested in U.S. industry, preserving the structural dependency of Gulf states on Washington.

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