Middle East Forum:

Dalga Khatinoglu

Twenty years ago, the Islamic Republic drafted its “20-Year Development Vision Plan” which concludes this year. When formulated, President Mohammad Khatami’s so-called reformist government was in power, and many Western governments sought to engage Iran. The plan’s implementation, however, coincided with the rise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s populist government and escalating tensions with the outside world.

Now, only a few months from the plan’s expiration, its failures are evident. The June 2025 war with Israel exposed the failure of its objective to create “a secure, independent, and powerful nation with a defensive system based on comprehensive deterrence and the cohesion of people and government.” Israel destroyed almost the entirety of Iran’s air-defense systems at the outset, while society displayed no solidarity with the government despite a foreign attack.

Another core dimension of the plan—economic growth and citizens’ welfare—has also collapsed. Rather than progress, Iran has regressed over the past twenty years. The Vision explicitly called for Iran to achieve the leading position in the region in economy, science, and technology, with sustained high growth, improved per capita income, and full employment. This, too, has failed.

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