NZZ:

Anne Allmeling

Summary

* Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader for 36 years, aims to preserve the current political system after his death; however, it remains uncertain whether a smooth power transition and comparable authority for his successor can be ensured.

* The Iranian Revolutionary Guards hold significant military and economic influence, potentially playing a key role in the transfer of power, though their loyalty is increasingly questioned.

* Despite protests and a widespread desire for reforms, systemic change is unlikely as long as entrenched powers continue to benefit from their privileges.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic for 36 years. As the leader of the revolution, he is in charge of 90 million Iranians and an icon for many, as most people in the country have never known any other head of state. The supreme leader has the final say in almost all matters. If Khamenei has his way, this will remain the case even after his death. Indeed, the 86-year-old's most important goal is for the political system of the Islamic Republic – with the supreme leader at its helm – to continue to exist once he himself is gone.

But can the Iranian system survive the death of its supreme leader? During the 12-day war against Iran in June, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his conviction that Khamenei's death would be the catalyst for regime change. However, experts on the region doubt that the death of the supreme leader would automatically lead to a different political system.

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