Atalayar:

The until recently unthinkable disarmament of a weakened Hezbollah could be closer than ever. Analysts point out that US pressure on the Lebanese government and on Iran, the group's main ally, over its nuclear programme, is changing the regional balance.

Hezbollah was severely weakened by more than a year of hostilities with Israel, which began with a rocket-launching campaign against its archenemy in support of its ally Hamas and culminated in a major bombing campaign and Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon.

In the months following the war, which devastated parts of the country and killed many of the movement's top leaders, Lebanon elected a president and formed a government after a vacuum of more than two years as the balance of power shifted.

The war ‘clearly changed the situation on the ground in Lebanon,’ said David Wood of the International Crisis Group.

‘It is conceivable to think that Hezbollah could move towards disarmament and potentially even participate voluntarily in that process,’ Wood added.

Hezbollah was the only group that refused to disarm after the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war. Reinforced by an arsenal once considered more powerful than that of the Lebanese army, it long presented itself as the country's best line of defence against Israeli aggression.

Under a 27 November truce, Hezbollah was to withdraw its fighters north of the Litani River in Lebanon and dismantle all remaining military infrastructure in the south, while the Lebanese army was to deploy in the area.

Israel was supposed to withdraw its troops, but it still remains in five places it considers ‘strategic’ and carries out regular attacks on what it says are mostly Hezbollah targets.

Hezbollah said it had handed over to the Lebanese army around 190 of its 265 identified military positions south of the Litani.

The US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, who is leading Washington's campaign to pressure the Lebanese government into disarming Hezbollah, said this month that this should happen ‘as soon as possible’. 

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