Bloomberg:

Donald Trump could blow a $30 billion hole in Iran’s economy should he return to a maximum pressure campaign on Tehran.

Over the past four years, sanctions evasion and more relaxed US enforcement have allowed the Middle Eastern nation to boost oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day, with most of the supply going to China, according to Bloomberg’s tanker tracking data and estimates by commercial and government organizations. But that could change quickly.

A potential tariff war between Canada and the United States would likely take longer to resolve than it did last time, and cost Canadians much more.

The incoming president’s key advisers are looking at a big sanctions package that hits major players in Iran’s oil industry, which could come as early as February, people familiar with the plan said this month. Cutting off that revenue — equivalent to about 7% of Iran’s annual GDP — would further strain the finances of a country already dealing with massive power shortages, wobbling industries and a plunging currency.  

While it’s not yet clear what action Trump may take on Iran after he’s sworn in Monday, any move will have implications for the oil market. The outgoing Biden administration imposed aggressive new sanctions on Russia, and a loss of supply from Iran runs the risk of tightening the market and likely boosting crude prices that have risen about 7% this year.

During the Biden administration’s four-year term, Iran sold $140 billion of crude to China, accounting for more than 80% of its total sales, according to the advocacy group United Against a Nuclear Iran. That would put total Iranian oil revenue at roughly $175 billion over the period, or $44 billion a year. 

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