Majid Rafizadeh

Alarabiya

The recent collapse of the Syrian Arab Republic, culminating in the fall of Damascus and the end of the al-Assad family regime, represents a seismic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East. For Iran, the loss of its key ally, Syria, is the most significant blow to its regional influence since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Syrian regime, led by Bashar al-Assad, had been a crucial partner for Tehran, serving as a lynchpin for Iran’s regional ambitions. Now, as opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebel groups take control, Iran faces unprecedented strategic, political, and economic setbacks.

Since 1979, Iran has maintained a critical alliance with Syria, which has served as a strategic conduit for Tehran’s influence in the Levant. Syria provided Iran with a crucial corridor for projecting its power across the region, acting as a bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and facilitating Iranian operations in Iraq and even extending to Yemen. Syria’s geographic location was vital for Iran’s strategic calculus, offering both direct access to the Mediterranean and a foothold in the Arab world.

Politically, Syria under Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar was Iran’s staunchest ally in the Arab world. The al-Assad regime’s secular, minority Alawite rule aligned with Iran’s Islamic Republic, creating a powerful bond based on mutual interests. For Tehran, supporting the Assad regime was not just about ideological kinship but also about enhancing its geopolitical stature in the Middle East. By backing Assad, Iran was able to extend its influence across the region, especially among Shia militias in Iraq and Lebanon, and gain leverage over the broader Arab world.

The fall of Damascus and the collapse of the Assad regime have left Iran with severe repercussions that will reverberate across the Middle East. The immediate loss is Iran’s foothold in Syria, which has served as a springboard for its regional ambitions. With the opposition forces storming the Iranian embassy in Damascus and taking control of the capital, the symbolic blow to Tehran’s power cannot be overstated. The storming of the embassy is not merely a physical attack but also a potent political statement. It signals that Iran’s role in Syria, and its broader influence in the region, is being rejected by many Syrians who have long viewed the Iranian government as complicit in the suffering caused by the al-Assad regime.

Syrian men stand outside the building of the Iranian embassy which was ransacked after anti-government fighters took Damascus the previous day, with a portrait of Iran's slain Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, still hanging on its fence in the Syrian capital on December 9, 2024. (AFP)

For the Iranian government, this loss represents more than the collapse of a single ally. It signals the unraveling of Iran’s regional strategy, which has been carefully constructed over decades. The strategic corridor that connected Tehran to its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen is now in jeopardy. The influence Iran once wielded through the al-Assad regime in Syria has evaporated, and with it, Iran’s ability to project power across the Levant. The loss of Syria is particularly devastating because it erodes Iran’s position in a region where it has invested considerable resources, both human and financial, over the years.

The fall of Syria also represents a major political and ideological setback for Iran. The opposition leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s victory speech encapsulates the animosity many Syrians feel towards Iran’s role in their country’s destruction. Al-Jolani condemned Syria’s use as a “playground for Iranian ambitions,” accusing Tehran of spreading sectarianism and corruption. This statement resonates deeply with Syrians, especially those who have suffered the ravages of the civil war and view Iran’s involvement as an exacerbating factor.

The ideological blow to Iran is also significant. Tehran has long championed the idea of exporting its revolution, and Syria was a cornerstone of that effort. By backing al-Assad, Iran positioned itself as the protector of Shia Islam in the Arab world, particularly as it courted the loyalty of Shia militias and groups like Hezbollah. With al-Assad’s fall, Iran’s claim to be the leader of the Shia resistance in the region is weakened, and its ideological and religious influence is diminished.

Furthermore, with the withdrawal of Iranian military forces from Syria, which were integral to al-Assad’s survival, Iran now faces significant challenges. The loss of both territory and influence has undermined its military presence in Syria, reducing its ability to project power in the region and weakening its strategic posture for future interventions

Iran’s relationship with Syria was central to its ambitions to shape the Middle East. The collapse of Syria and the end of the al-Assad regime undermine Tehran’s broader strategy of expanding its influence through proxy warfare and alliances with like-minded regimes. Iran’s efforts to counterbalance the influence of the United States and its allies in the region, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, have now been severely disrupted.

The Iranian government is also likely to face increased pressure from international actors, including the United States and Israel, who have long viewed Iran’s involvement in Syria as a destabilizing force. With Syria now in opposition hands, Iran’s ability to influence events in Lebanon, Iraq, and even Palestine may be significantly reduced.

In conclusion, the fall of Syria marks a profound shift in the Middle East, not only for Iran but for the region as a whole. The loss of Syria is the most significant blow to Iranian power in the region since the 1979 revolution and represents the unraveling of Tehran’s carefully constructed network of influence. With Syria slipping from its grasp, Iran faces unprecedented challenges in maintaining its regional dominance. The storming of the Iranian embassy in Damascus is a powerful symbol of this loss, and the message from the Syrian opposition leader is clear: Iran’s ambitions in Syria have been repudiated, and a new chapter in the history of the region is beginning.