IranWire:

Source: BBC Persian

In a recent message, Prince Reza Pahlavi (the son of Iran’s last Shah) argued that a military strike against Iran could shift the “balance of power” between the opposition and the state’s armed forces. But what does he mean by that - and how does his camp envision the country unfolding in the aftermath of such an attack?

Saeed Ghasseminejad, one of Mr. Pahlavi’s closest advisors, explained the message by writing: “After the military intervention of the U.S. and Israel, when the Islamic Republic’s suppression apparatus is weakened, the Iranian people must finish the job… In confronting the Islamic Republic system, which has killed tens of thousands in just two days, the use of any tool is legitimate, and confronting any active member of the suppression apparatus at any time, place, or situation is considered legitimate defense.”

Reza Pahlavi is one of the most visible opposition figures living in exile. Saeed Ghasseminejad, a senior advisor linked to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), is considered a key strategist within his circle. When they speak of creating a “balance of power,” they are suggesting that the opposition currently lacks the weapons, structure, and organization to confront the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In their view, only a foreign military strike could weaken the state’s security apparatus enough to open the door for a successful uprising from within.

Mr. Ghasseminejad - who is also the drafter of the “Emergency or Transition Period Manual” - and Mr. Pahlavi both emphasize the necessity of a military strike by the U.S., Israel, or anyone else against the “Islamic Republic” in Iran. Mr. Ghasseminejad recently argued in an article for the Jerusalem Post that Israel must ensure the Islamic Republic is removed as a result of such an attack and that the transition to the next government is led by Mr. Pahlavi, who maintains warm relations with Israel.

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