Middle East Forum:

By Gregg Roman

Israel’s ceasefire with Hamas is a bad deal. Jerusalem has agreed to an uneven exchange, freeing thousands of convicted terrorists in return for fewer than a hundred hostages. Some of the released prisoners will revert to violence. Yet a silver lining may outweigh immediate dangers. If the incoming Trump administration remains committed to halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may conclude that acquiescing to team Trump on Gaza might shift focus from Gaza to Tehran.

With its proxies in retreat, Tehran is isolated, its path to the Mediterranean blocked. Israeli strategists argue that resolution with Hamas, even if unfavorable on its face, allows Jerusalem to redirect military resources toward countering the Iranian nuclear program. Military planners point to secret sites like Fordow that require specialized ordnance to destroy. Only the United States can provide these munitions. Netanyahu has placed his trust in the incoming White House team, which has said repeatedly that it would not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran.

Secretary of State-designee Marco Rubio has defended Israel’s security requirements and called Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terror. Pete Hegseth, who if confirmed will head the Defense Department, has said Israel should receive support to crush hostile forces and insists that Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Iranian proxies have no rightful place in any government. Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has argued that the United States must seize the moment caused by the Hezbollah and Syria.

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