Wavell Room:

by Tarik Solmaz

Introduction

Since the Gaza war began nearly a year ago, Israel has conducted dozens of airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets across the Middle East.  There is a widespread concern that the ongoing low-level conflict may escalate into an all-out war between the two nations.  Nevertheless, Tehran, for its part, does not seem inclined to escalate into a full-scale war. There are six pivotal reasons for Iran’s strategic impasse.

Fear of a Regime Change

The first reason relates to Tehran’s prioritisation of regime preservation.  Iran knows that the Islamic regime itself may become the primary target for removal in a conflict.  Iran’s economy is strained due to long-standing sanctions and domestic economic challenges.  A direct conflict with Israel would worsen Iran’s economic troubles.  Moreover, ethnic minority groups within Iran, such as the Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchis, have long been exasperated with the Iranian regime and there is a genuine risk that Israel may engage with these groups.

Potential US Involvement

A second factor is that a war between Iran and Israel would likely draw the United States, Israel’s historic ally, into the war. The power asymmetry between the US and Iran is striking. The US stands unmatched in its capabilities. Conversely, Tehran’s efforts to modernise its conventional forces have yielded limited success due to the country’s defence economics problems.

Regional Interests

Tehran’s direct war with Israel would certainly jeopardise its regional interests. Iran strongly emphasises advancing its sectarian geopolitical ambitions within regions traditionally considered part of the Iranian/Shia sphere of influence. A direct conflict with Israel could potentially provide opportunities for Saudi Arabia, a key antagonist seeking to counter Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East, and its allies to exploit the situation to their advantage. 

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