Stimson Center:

Regarding succession, Ebrahim Raisi or Alireza Arafi are more likely to succeed Ali Khamenei than his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

By  Shahir Shahidsaless

April 17 marked Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 85th birthday and coincided with a critical juncture for Iran as tensions with Israel escalated at historic proportions.  While details regarding Khamenei’s physical state remain confidential, unprecedented remarks from the head of the Supreme Leader’s medical team stirred speculation about Khamenei’s true condition.

In an interview, Alireza Marandi stated, “God has shown great favor to the Islamic Republic and all of us by keeping him [Khamenei] in good health… He is remarkably fit, defying his age.”

Broadcasting these comments, rather than reassuring the public, did the opposite, renewing questions about potential successors.

The Iranian ruling system claims to be both Islamic and a republic, with many nominally elected offices.  However, the March 1 elections had the lowest participation rate in the history of the Islamic Republic, with only 41 percent of eligible voters taking part. The wholesale disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates by the ultra-conservative Guardian Council, tasked with vetting candidates, contributed to an unparalleled surge for the most extreme faction within the Iranian system.

For the first time, the top three elected members of parliament in Tehran were from a ultra-conservative group known as Paydari or the Steadfastness Front. The group’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, who died in 2021, argued that elections in Iran only occur because the country’s ruler permits them and that the leader can endorse or reject the people’s choices.

Mesbah followers are staunch advocates for the enforcement of religious norms, particularly concerning women, support restricting internet access, and harbor strong anti-American tendencies. Their opposition to any U.S. foothold in Iran or advancement of modernity stems from a belief that such developments would render their ideology obsolete. In this aspect, they align closely with the views of Khamenei.

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