Cartoon by Paresh Nath

Iran’s new president can only change the country so much

by Ellen Ioanes

Vox: Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist president-elect of Iran, clocked a narrow win over a hard-line candidate in the Islamic Republic’s election Sunday. But given the long-term priorities of the clerics who are the ultimate source of power in Iran, Pezeshkian will only be able to make limited changes, in certain areas — and any reforms he does successfully make are not guaranteed to last beyond his tenure.

Pezeshkian’s victory reveals a few things about both the regime under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the mood of ordinary Iranians. The mere fact of his being able to run — presidential candidates are decided by a group of clerics called the Guardian Council — indicates that Khamenei and his allies, who oversee most of Iran’s government, understand that people are dissatisfied with the status quo, especially following a brutal crackdown on protests and the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in 2022.

Still, there is a strong element in Iran’s electorate opposed to reforms, as evidenced by the fact that Pezeshkian’s competitor, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, is a hardliner — and the final margin between the two of them was quite thin. Though it’s important to note the results with a certain level of skepticism given Iranian leadership’s frequent dishonesty, the regime threw its resources behind Jalili and clearly wanted him to win. And the fact that nearly half the electorate voted for Jalili shows a high level of polarization.

Complicating any effort to draw conclusions from turnout is the fact that there was widespread abstention, either because of a vote boycott organized by activists including those from the Woman, Life, Freedom movement or simply due to voter apathy. But of the nearly 50 percent of eligible voters who did cast a ballot, the majority voted for someone who at least promised limited change, increased transparency, and a willingness to resist factionalization and try to improve people’s lives.

“Part of the precedent we’ve seen before is that whenever a reformist — an actual reformer — does run, they win,” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Vox. “In a way, it was a surprise that he was allowed to run. But I wasn’t surprised that he won — even from the beginning, polls showed that he was ahead. So this still shows that … the majority of whoever voted, believes in reform and is unhappy.” >>>