Illustration by Mohsen Mohsenian

The winter of their discontent: When a theocracy freezes

by Jasim Al-Azzawi

Middle East Monitor: With the chill hitting Iran’s bones in December, that cold has done much more than close schools and government services. It has also revealed the fragility of an Iranian regime that is currently finding itself in its most desperate crisis since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The Iranian Rial, which is currently 1.42 million to 1 US Dollar, symbolises more than Iran’s economic downturn. The remnants of Iran’s complex sanctions-evasion networks, which it developed over many decades, are disintegrating. The Iranian Rial depreciated by 46 per cent in the last year, making it officially the least valuable currency in the world.

The ironies are stark: a country sitting on the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, unable to warm its capital. Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi acknowledged that 13 power plants are out of commission due to fuel shortages. The government has resorted to burning the toxic mazut, which accounts for 15 per cent of all deaths in Tehran, according to Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi.

The closure of schools, which left millions of students engaging in online learning, indicates a system that has not maintained control over its fundamentals. When Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called on his citizens to turn their thermostats by 2 degrees Celsius, it demonstrated the desperation. His previous statement, “I wear warm clothes at home; others can do the same,” increased public indignation against leaders they saw as callously out of touch.

The simmering resentments boiled over on 29 December. The merchants of the Grand Bazaar in Tehran closed their stores for the second day running, while millions of Iranians shouted anti-government chants across the country. The riot police responded by releasing tear gas. On the same day, Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin resigned.

“Although this series of protests has a different cause than those that took place during the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, having been sparked by the killing of Mahsa Jina Amini by the so-called morality police, the issues at play are essentially the same when it comes to systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression,” Holly Dagres, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explained.

The movement symbolises more than an economic grievance. Inflation, according to official government data, has climbed to 42.2 per cent as of December, while food prices alone increased by an alarming 72 per cent over the past year. This indicates that, for many Iranians, seeing their money disintegrate, these protests symbolise grief turning to rage.

However, the fear that most pervades the regime extends beyond the hostilities within the country’s borders. It is the fear of foreign invasion, which has heightened as a result of the nuclear equation since the war that took place for 12 days in June between the government of Iran, Israel, and the United States. These airstrikes claimed the lives of about 1,100 Iranian citizens, including high-ranking military and nuclear scientists, while their atomic facilities at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow were severely bombed.

President Trump, during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, issued threatening warnings on 29 December: “Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down,” Trump said. “We’ll knock the hell out of them.” Regarding supporting Israel if they were to attack the Iranian nuclear program, Trump answered, “The nuclear? Fast”.

The strategic discussion today has evolved from “whether Iran will cross the nuclear threshold” to “when” and “whether ‘gray zone’ warfare by assassination, sabotage, or cyber-attacks will suffice for deterrence.” Two schools of thought exist: “a collapsing regime provides the best route to disarmament,” while a “cornered theocracy is the most perilous scenario” that could speed up nuclearization “to guarantee survival through regional conflagration.”

The Islamic Republic’s Axis of Resistance has come apart. The downfall of the Syrian Assad regime has rendered the Hezbollah alliance meaningless, resulting in an estimated $30 billion loss for Tehran. Iranians are afflicted to the extent that 57 per cent suffer malnutrition, and 30 per cent live in poverty, as reported by the Ministry of Social Welfare.

It is Iran’s “winter of discontent,” and implications stretch far beyond Iranian shores. “Regional powers and agencies of intelligence are watching Iran today with more than mere interest—fear!” noted Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute. “Breakdown in brittle states is rarely, or ever, a quiet business.”

And so the world is placed in limbo as a wounded theocracy is forced to deal with the cold that seeks not just to numb but to break — all the while with the wolves of war closing in from the darkness outside.