Illustration by David Gothard

Trump Faces a Moment of Truth on Iran

By Karen Elliott House

The Wall Street Journal: After weeks of indirect talks, President Trump will soon have to make a decision on the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The only honorable option is to dismantle it. This can be done through diplomacy, which is highly unlikely, or with force. Any other outcome endangers both Israel and Saudi Arabia, key U.S. partners in the Middle East, and destroys Mr. Trump’s credibility with the world.

The president adamantly—and repeatedly—has insisted he will accept nothing less than “total dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program. The mullahs in Tehran will never agree to that. They saw what happened to Ukraine and Libya after giving up their nuclear ambitions. They think that enriching uranium for their nuclear reactors is a national right. Their real goal isn’t electricity generation but the ability to produce material for a bomb.

America’s partners are getting nervous. Will Mr. Trump keep his word and obtain “total dismantlement” by force? Are these talks led by Steve Witkoff, a presidential golfing buddy with no diplomatic experience, simply a feint to portray the president as a patient peacemaker before supporting an Israeli strike on Iran? Or is Mr. Trump truly so eager for a deal he will accept something akin to the “worst deal in history,” signed by President Obama in 2015? Saudi and Israeli leaders are united in their fear that it is the latter.

As the president heads to Saudi Arabia this week, his host, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, must feel trapped. If Mr. Trump agrees to a bad deal that allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons, the mullahs can destabilize Saudi Arabia by attacking its oil facilities and many expensive development projects while hiding behind the protection of their nuclear capability. Alternatively, if no deal is reached and Mr. Trump approves an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and other key infrastructure, the kingdom almost certainly will be Tehran’s first target for revenge.

Iran’s defense minister warned May 4 that “if war is initiated by the U.S. or Israel, Iran will strike their interests, bases and forces wherever they are and whenever necessary.” The U.S. has several air bases in Saudi Arabia that would be targets. More specifically, Iran warned Saudi Arabia not to allow Israel to use its airspace for an attack on Iran, threatening destructive retaliation. To hedge his bets, the crown prince recently dispatched his brother, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, to meet personally with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, the first Saudi official to do so in nearly 20 years.

Mr. Trump recently has raised Iran’s ire by pledging to impose secondary sanctions on nations that buy its oil. Despite U.S. sanctions, Tehran manages to sell 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China. China wins by securing oil at a deep discount and Iran wins by receiving a lifeline of hard currency for its devastated economy >>>